FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Terminal Market

Discrepancy Explorer

Where a player's observed value and the model's estimate part ways. A residual is a disagreement between a model and Transfermarkt's valuation, not a verdict on the player or the price.

Positive residual observed value exceeds the estimate: the model under-predicts.

Negative residual observed value is below the estimate: the model over-predicts.

Residual = log(observed) − log(estimate). A typical held-out miss for Model A is ×1.50 either way (mean absolute log error 0.406).

Residuals · Model A · held-out

  1. DMN'Golo KantéDefensive Midfield · Süper Lig+2.15 ×8.58€4Mest. €466kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  2. CMJordan JamesCentral Midfield · Premier League+2.10 ×8.15€12Mest. €1.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  3. CBBen GodfreyCentre-Back · Superliga+2.04 ×7.70€5Mest. €650kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  4. RWBenjamín GarréRight Winger · Super League+2.02 ×7.53€3.5Mest. €465kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  5. CBEmmanuel FernandezCentre-Back · Premiership+1.99 ×7.34€18Mest. €2.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  6. CMDaler KuzyaevCentral Midfield · Premier Liga+1.97 ×7.19€3Mest. €417kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  7. CBGiovanni LeoniCentre-Back · Premier League+1.96 ×7.10€25Mest. €3.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  8. AMJhon JhonAttacking Midfield · Premier Liga+1.94 ×6.96€15Mest. €2.2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  9. CFDanny IngsCentre-Forward · Premier League+1.94 ×6.93€3.5Mest. €505kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  10. CMBeñat PradosCentral Midfield · LaLiga+1.83 ×6.23€15Mest. €2.4MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  11. CBJérémy JacquetCentre-Back · Ligue 1+1.82 ×6.16€55Mest. €8.9MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  12. GKGavin BazunuGoalkeeper · Premier League+1.81 ×6.14€8Mest. €1.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  13. CBDavid RicardoCentre-Back · Premier Liga+1.79 ×5.98€6Mest. €1MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  14. DMRodriDefensive Midfield · Premier League+1.79 ×5.97€50Mest. €8.4MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  15. DMLuis ChávezDefensive Midfield · Premier Liga+1.75 ×5.77€6Mest. €1MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  16. CFRyan NaderiCentre-Forward · Premiership+1.67 ×5.32€4.5Mest. €846kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  17. LBRubensLeft-Back · Premier Liga+1.66 ×5.26€8Mest. €1.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  18. CFBertuğ YıldırımCentre-Forward · Süper Lig+1.66 ×5.23€7Mest. €1.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  19. CMIvan IlićCentral Midfield · Serie A+1.65 ×5.22€7Mest. €1.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  20. LBTuur RommensLeft-Back · Premiership+1.63 ×5.11€7Mest. €1.4MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  21. SSAlexis SánchezSecond Striker · LaLiga+1.63 ×5.10€1.2Mest. €235kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  22. LBOleksandr ZinchenkoLeft-Back · Eredivisie+1.63 ×5.08€8Mest. €1.6MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  23. CFMilos LukovicCentre-Forward · LaLiga+1.62 ×5.08€5Mest. €985kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  24. CBAymeric LaporteCentre-Back · LaLiga+1.62 ×5.07€8Mest. €1.6MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  25. CBKristers TobersCentre-Back · Premiership+1.57 ×4.79€800kest. €167kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  26. CFStefán Ingi SigurdarsonCentre-Forward · Eredivisie+1.54 ×4.68€2Mest. €428kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  27. CFArtem DzyubaCentre-Forward · Premier Liga+1.54 ×4.65€1Mest. €215kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  28. LBNiccolò FortiniLeft-Back · Serie A+1.52 ×4.58€10Mest. €2.2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  29. CMTeddy TeumaCentral Midfield · Pro League+1.49 ×4.45€1.8Mest. €404kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  30. GKPer Kristian BråtveitGoalkeeper · Premiership+1.47 ×4.34€500kest. €115kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  31. DMDiogo SousaDefensive Midfield · Liga Portugal+1.47 ×4.34€8Mest. €1.8MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  32. GKSamuel SoaresGoalkeeper · Liga Portugal+1.46 ×4.32€3Mest. €694kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  33. CFAmine SalamaCentre-Forward · Eredivisie+1.46 ×4.29€1Mest. €233kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  34. CMPhilip BillingCentral Midfield · Superliga+1.45 ×4.28€6Mest. €1.4MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  35. GKIgor AkinfeevGoalkeeper · Premier Liga+1.45 ×4.27€1Mest. €234kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  36. CBLogan CostaCentre-Back · LaLiga+1.45 ×4.26€15Mest. €3.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  37. CBGeoffrey KondoCentre-Back · Pro League+1.42 ×4.15€3Mest. €723kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  38. RWAbdul FatawuRight Winger · Premier League+1.42 ×4.14€20Mest. €4.8MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  39. LBYasser LarouciLeft-Back · Super League+1.42 ×4.12€1.5Mest. €364kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  40. CBLiam MorrisonCentre-Back · Premiership+1.42 ×4.12€1Mest. €243kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  41. CFPetar RatkovCentre-Forward · Serie A+1.41 ×4.12€9Mest. €2.2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  42. CMAlex Oxlade-ChamberlainCentral Midfield · Premiership+1.41 ×4.11€1Mest. €244kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  43. CMAmir RichardsonCentral Midfield · Superliga+1.40 ×4.06€4Mest. €985kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  44. AMYusuf YazıcıAttacking Midfield · Super League+1.40 ×4.05€3.5Mest. €864kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  45. LWChiquinhoLeft Winger · Liga Portugal+1.40 ×4.05€5Mest. €1.2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  46. CBVirgil van DijkCentre-Back · Premier League+1.39 ×4.02€15Mest. €3.7MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  47. GKChristos MandasGoalkeeper · Premier League+1.39 ×4.02€8Mest. €2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  48. AMDamián PueblaAttacking Midfield · Premier Liga+1.39 ×4.01€2Mest. €499kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  49. GKAlberto BrignoliGoalkeeper · Super League+1.38 ×3.99€700kest. €176kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  50. GKFilip StankovićGoalkeeper · Serie A+1.37 ×3.93€5Mest. €1.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  51. RBJulián AraujoRight-Back · Premiership+1.37 ×3.92€8Mest. €2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  52. GKGeorgiy BushchanGoalkeeper · Premier Liha+1.36 ×3.88€2Mest. €515kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  53. DMJon GorrotxategiDefensive Midfield · LaLiga+1.35 ×3.87€25Mest. €6.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  54. CFSteve MouniéCentre-Forward · Süper Lig+1.34 ×3.82€1.5Mest. €393kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  55. CBEmmanuel AgbadouCentre-Back · Süper Lig+1.34 ×3.81€16Mest. €4.2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  56. RWJesurun Rak-SakyiRight Winger · Premier League+1.34 ×3.81€6Mest. €1.6MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  57. GKUnai SimónGoalkeeper · LaLiga+1.34 ×3.80€22Mest. €5.8MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  58. GKMarc-André ter StegenGoalkeeper · LaLiga+1.33 ×3.79€3Mest. €791kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  59. CMJuninho BacunaCentral Midfield · Eredivisie+1.33 ×3.78€1.7Mest. €449kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  60. CMDavid WatsonCentral Midfield · Premiership+1.32 ×3.75€2Mest. €533kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  61. LWJack GrealishLeft Winger · Premier League+1.32 ×3.75€20Mest. €5.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  62. GKJasper SchendelaarGoalkeeper · Eredivisie+1.31 ×3.71€1.5Mest. €405kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  63. LBMoncef ZekriLeft-Back · Pro League+1.31 ×3.70€4Mest. €1.1MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  64. LWJota SilvaLeft Winger · Süper Lig+1.31 ×3.69€10Mest. €2.7MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  65. CFDuván ZapataCentre-Forward · Serie A+1.30 ×3.69€2.5Mest. €678kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  66. CMMagnus MattssonCentral Midfield · Superliga+1.30 ×3.68€4Mest. €1.1MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  67. RBMarco PalestraRight-Back · Serie A+1.30 ×3.67€35Mest. €9.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  68. LWSorba ThomasLeft Winger · Premier League+1.30 ×3.67€14Mest. €3.8MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  69. AMChukiAttacking Midfield · LaLiga+1.29 ×3.64€4Mest. €1.1MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  70. LBOmar RichardsLeft-Back · Liga Portugal+1.29 ×3.62€2Mest. €553kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  71. CBDavid AffengruberCentre-Back · LaLiga+1.29 ×3.62€20Mest. €5.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  72. RBRicardo PereiraRight-Back · Premier League+1.28 ×3.59€3Mest. €835kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  73. GKJoël DrommelGoalkeeper · Eredivisie+1.28 ×3.58€4Mest. €1.1MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  74. RMJoel MvukaRight Midfield · Premiership+1.26 ×3.53€1.5Mest. €425kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  75. CMFelipe LoyolaCentral Midfield · Serie A+1.26 ×3.51€7Mest. €2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  76. CMBenjamin BouchouariCentral Midfield · Süper Lig+1.25 ×3.50€4.5Mest. €1.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  77. CFDavid StrelecCentre-Forward · Premier League+1.25 ×3.50€8Mest. €2.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  78. CBIbrahima BaCentre-Back · Liga Portugal+1.25 ×3.49€12Mest. €3.4MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  79. CFOumar DiakitéCentre-Forward · Pro League+1.25 ×3.48€5Mest. €1.4MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  80. GKYuriy DyupinGoalkeeper · Premier Liga+1.24 ×3.47€200kest. €58kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  81. CFCarlos EspíCentre-Forward · LaLiga+1.24 ×3.47€20Mest. €5.8MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  82. CFThibault KlidjéCentre-Forward · Superliga+1.24 ×3.46€2Mest. €578kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  83. CBAdamo NagaloCentre-Back · Süper Lig+1.23 ×3.43€2.8Mest. €816kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  84. LWJotaLeft Winger · Premiership+1.23 ×3.42€5Mest. €1.5MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  85. CMMatija MitrovićCentral Midfield · Liga Portugal+1.23 ×3.41€2Mest. €587kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  86. CMChristos ZafeirisCentral Midfield · Super League+1.22 ×3.40€11Mest. €3.2MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  87. CBTylel TatiCentre-Back · Ligue 1+1.22 ×3.39€25Mest. €7.4MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  88. DMNicolò RovellaDefensive Midfield · Serie A+1.22 ×3.38€23Mest. €6.8MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  89. CBMarquinhosCentre-Back · Ligue 1+1.22 ×3.38€28Mest. €8.3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  90. CBRaúl AlbiolCentre-Back · Serie A+1.22 ×3.38€700kest. €207kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  91. GKGauthier GallonGoalkeeper · Pro League+1.21 ×3.37€600kest. €178kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  92. LWZuriko DavitashviliLeft Winger · Ligue 1+1.21 ×3.35€12Mest. €3.6MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  93. CBVeljko MilosavljevicCentre-Back · Premier League+1.21 ×3.34€20Mest. €6MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  94. RWGabriel VeronRight Winger · Liga Portugal+1.20 ×3.33€2.5Mest. €751kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  95. CBAarón AnselminoCentre-Back · Ligue 1+1.20 ×3.32€10Mest. €3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  96. LWNoah SavioloLeft Winger · Liga Portugal+1.20 ×3.32€10Mest. €3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  97. LBBen ChilwellLeft-Back · Ligue 1+1.20 ×3.32€10Mest. €3MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  98. CBJarrad BranthwaiteCentre-Back · Premier League+1.20 ×3.31€40Mest. €12.1MObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  99. RWPedro BrazãoRight Winger · Süper Lig+1.20 ×3.31€1.2Mest. €363kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts
  100. CFAlassane PléaCentre-Forward · Eredivisie+1.20 ×3.30€2.5Mest. €756kObserved above estimatemodel under-predicts

100 of 5,820 players shown (at most 100). A large residual can reflect anything the model does not see, such as injuries, contract situations or reputation, as well as gaps in the data. Group-level patterns in these residuals are studied, with uncertainty, in the Fairness Audit.