FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Marquinhos

CBBrazil · Paris Saint-Germain

№ 181767Elite €8.3M +1.22

Player dossierLigue 1

Marquinhos

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Paris Saint-Germain
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Brazil
Age
32
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Marquinhos at €28M. Model A, which never saw Marquinhos during training, estimates €8.3M: the market value is 238% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.22A €8.3M▲ +1.74B €4.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
6,194
Goals
4
Assists
0
Started
69/75
Min / app
83
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marquinhos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €28M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €28MModel A €8.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Marquinhos's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 88th, European club minutes 99th69thGoals17thAssists94thMinutes76thStarts88thRecent99thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

52% this player0% defender median99th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Feb 2012
Peak
€75M
Jun 2021
Model target
€28M
Jun 2026
Valuations
36
2 club changes
Jun 2026€28MParis Saint-GermainValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €28M, Paris Saint-Germain. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-02€150kSport Club Corinthians Paulista
2012-05-24€150kSport Club Corinthians Paulista
2012-07-29€750kSport Club Corinthians Paulista
2013-01-14€5MAS Roma
2013-04-09€10MAS Roma
2013-06-19€15MAS Roma
2013-07-25€25MParis Saint-Germain
2014-01-14€25MParis Saint-Germain
2014-08-01€25MParis Saint-Germain
2015-01-14€25MParis Saint-Germain
2015-06-06€25MParis Saint-Germain
2015-09-06€30MParis Saint-Germain
2016-02-04€30MParis Saint-Germain
2016-07-13€30MParis Saint-Germain
2017-01-16€32MParis Saint-Germain
2017-06-01€35MParis Saint-Germain
2018-01-24€40MParis Saint-Germain
2018-03-20€55MParis Saint-Germain
2018-06-04€55MParis Saint-Germain
2018-12-17€60MParis Saint-Germain
2019-06-03€65MParis Saint-Germain
2019-12-19€65MParis Saint-Germain
2020-04-08€52MParis Saint-Germain
2020-10-15€70MParis Saint-Germain
2021-06-04€75MParis Saint-Germain
2021-12-16€75MParis Saint-Germain
2022-05-30€70MParis Saint-Germain
2022-11-02€70MParis Saint-Germain
2023-06-27€65MParis Saint-Germain
2023-12-18€60MParis Saint-Germain
2024-03-19€55MParis Saint-Germain
2024-06-03€50MParis Saint-Germain
2024-12-10€40MParis Saint-Germain
2025-06-03€35MParis Saint-Germain
2025-12-15€30MParis Saint-Germain
2026-06-01€28MParis Saint-Germain

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.218

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 91% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Marquinhos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).