FairValue

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Portrait of Jota Silva

Jota

Silva

LWPortugal · Besiktas JK

№ 663244Elite €2.7M +1.31

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSüper Lig

JotaSilva

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Besiktas JK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Portugal
Age
26
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Silva at €10M. Model A, which never saw Silva during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 269% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.31A €2.7M▲ +0.66B €5.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
1,812
Goals
10
Assists
4
Started
14/57
Min / app
32
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Silva…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jota Silva's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 88th, Assists per 90 69th, Minutes, two years 40th, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 19th, European club minutes 64th88thGoals69thAssists40thMinutes6thStarts19thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.50 this player0.26 attacker median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€225k
Nov 2020
Peak
€15M
May 2025
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
15
4 club changes
May 2026€10MBesiktas JKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Besiktas JK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-11-02€225kLeixões SC
2021-06-29€250kCasa Pia AC
2022-04-01€525kCasa Pia AC
2022-06-27€750kCasa Pia AC
2022-11-01€750kVitória Guimarães SC
2023-03-02€1MVitória Guimarães SC
2023-06-16€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2023-12-27€4MVitória Guimarães SC
2024-03-08€5MVitória Guimarães SC
2024-06-06€12MVitória Guimarães SC
2024-12-16€14MNottingham Forest
2025-05-30€15MNottingham Forest
2025-12-17€14MBesiktas JK
2026-03-05€12MBesiktas JK
2026-05-21€10MBesiktas JK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.306

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 91% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Silva appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).