FairValue

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Omar

Richards

LBEngland · Rio Ave FC

№ 424881Established €553k +1.29

Player dossierLiga Portugal

OmarRichards

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Rio Ave FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
England
Age
28
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Richards at €2M. Model A, which never saw Richards during training, estimates €553k: the market value is 262% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.62. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €924k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.29A €553k▲ +0.77B €924k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,697
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
32/40
Min / app
67
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Richards…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €553k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Omar Richards's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals46thAssists47thMinutes44thStarts18thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,697 this player2,860 defender median47th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2018
Peak
€7M
Jun 2021
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
May 2026€2MRio Ave FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Rio Ave FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-02-27€100kReading FC
2018-09-24€100kReading FC
2019-02-27€500kReading FC
2019-06-28€500kReading FC
2019-10-17€1MReading FC
2020-02-27€1MReading FC
2020-04-08€900kReading FC
2020-10-15€1.5MReading FC
2020-12-22€2MReading FC
2021-03-10€5MReading FC
2021-06-30€7MReading FC
2021-12-22€7MBayern Munich
2022-06-09€7MBayern Munich
2022-11-03€7MNottingham Forest
2023-06-20€5MNottingham Forest
2023-12-20€4MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-03-06€2.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-05-30€2.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-12-19€2.5MRio Ave FC
2025-05-30€2.5MRio Ave FC
2025-12-18€2MRio Ave FC
2026-05-28€2MRio Ave FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.286

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 61% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Richards appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).