FairValue

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Alberto

Brignoli

GKItaly · AEK Athens

№ 146799Emerging €176k +1.38

Player dossierSuper League

AlbertoBrignoli

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Italy
Age
34
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Brignoli at €700k. Model A, which never saw Brignoli during training, estimates €176k: the market value is 299% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.99. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €191k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.38A €176k▲ +1.30B €191k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
1,110
Started
12/12
Min / app
93
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Brignoli…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €176k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Alberto Brignoli's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 21st, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 32nd21stMinutes62ndStarts17thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Sept 2011
Peak
€1.8M
May 2023
Model target
€700k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
10 club changes
Jun 2026€700kAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-09-21€75kAC Lumezzane
2011-12-15€200kAC Lumezzane
2012-04-29€300kAC Lumezzane
2012-12-26€250kTernana Calcio
2013-07-05€600kTernana Calcio
2014-01-29€600kTernana Calcio
2014-07-15€800kTernana Calcio
2015-02-10€1MTernana Calcio
2015-06-29€1.5MTernana Calcio
2016-01-04€1.3MUC Sampdoria
2016-07-15€1.2MJuventus FC
2017-01-06€1MJuventus FC
2017-06-09€1MAC Perugia Calcio
2017-12-29€1.3MBenevento Calcio
2018-06-07€1MBenevento Calcio
2019-01-17€1MUS Palermo
2019-06-05€1.3MUS Palermo
2019-12-30€1MFC Empoli
2020-04-08€800kFC Empoli
2020-08-21€1MEmpoli FC
2021-02-22€1MEmpoli FC
2021-06-24€1.2MEmpoli FC
2021-11-01€1.2MPanathinaikos
2022-06-09€1.2MPanathinaikos
2022-11-07€1.5MPanathinaikos
2023-05-22€1.8MPanathinaikos
2023-12-20€1.8MPanathinaikos
2024-03-06€1.5MPanathinaikos
2024-05-30€1.5MPanathinaikos
2024-09-26€1.2MAEK Athens
2024-12-18€1MAEK Athens
2025-05-23€900kAEK Athens
2025-12-12€800kAEK Athens
2026-06-04€700kAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.383

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 55% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Brignoli appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).