Terminal Market

League Landscape

The fourteen covered first divisions: how many players each contributes, how they are valued, and how well the model does there.

Leagues: 14 European first divisions
Players: 5,820
Errors: held-out, log scale; residual = log(observed) − log(estimate)
Coverage: leagues chosen for data coverage; not the global market

League board

League	Players	Median observed value €250k · €2M · €25M, log	Held-out error (MAE, log)	Mean residual, Model A
Premier LeagueEngland	555	€18M	0.385 B 1.03	+0.056
Serie AItaly	507	€5.5M	0.393 B 0.69	+0.058
Ligue 1France	423	€5M	0.398 B 0.68	+0.064
BundesligaGermany	451	€5M	0.363 B 0.75	+0.054
LaLigaSpain	509	€4M	0.418 B 0.59	+0.038
Pro LeagueBelgium	350	€1.8M	0.372 B 0.54	−0.008
Süper LigTürkiye	428	€1.2M	0.470 B 0.64	−0.020
EredivisieNetherlands	425	€1M	0.404 B 0.80	−0.045
Liga PortugalPortugal	423	€1M	0.420 B 0.57	−0.012
Premier LigaRussia	412	€1M	0.396 B 0.57	+0.003
SuperligaDenmark	256	€800k	0.441 B 0.60	−0.041
Super LeagueGreece	356	€600k	0.389 B 0.55	−0.030
PremiershipScotland	311	€400k	0.555 B 1.05	−0.076
Premier LihaUkraine	414	€400k	0.330 B 1.01	−0.042

Reading the board. Median value is the middle observed value of the league's players in the population (the line marks €2M). Error dots: gold Model A, outlined Model B; B leaves league and club out, and misses by more in every covered league. Mean residual above zero means observed values sit above Model A's estimates in that league on average. League-level averages; individual players vary widely.

Position composition

players by position, from the local export

Premier League555
Serie A507
Ligue 1423
Bundesliga451
LaLiga509
Pro League350
Süper Lig428
Eredivisie425
Liga Portugal423
Premier Liga412
Superliga256
Super League356
Premiership311
Premier Liha414

Goalkeeper Defender Midfield Attack