FairValue

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Portrait of Ben Chilwell

Ben

Chilwell

LBEngland · RC Strasbourg Alsace

№ 316125Elite €3M +1.20

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLigue 1

BenChilwell

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
RC Strasbourg Alsace
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
England
Age
29
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chilwell at €10M. Model A, which never saw Chilwell during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 232% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €703k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.20A €3M▲ +2.66B €703k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,997
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
21/31
Min / app
64
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chilwell…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ben Chilwell's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 34th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 48th, European club minutes 30th60thGoals74thAssists34thMinutes24thStarts48thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.09 this player0.04 defender median74th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Feb 2016
Peak
€50M
Dec 2019
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
3 club changes
Jun 2026€10MRC Strasbourg AlsaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, RC Strasbourg Alsace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-02-24€1MLeicester City
2016-08-01€2.5MLeicester City
2017-02-20€2.5MLeicester City
2017-06-28€2.5MLeicester City
2018-01-02€3MLeicester City
2018-05-28€8MLeicester City
2018-10-17€15MLeicester City
2018-12-19€25MLeicester City
2019-06-13€35MLeicester City
2019-12-10€50MLeicester City
2020-04-08€40MLeicester City
2020-10-13€50MChelsea FC
2021-03-18€50MChelsea FC
2021-05-28€45MChelsea FC
2021-10-05€38MChelsea FC
2021-12-23€38MChelsea FC
2022-06-15€38MChelsea FC
2022-11-03€38MChelsea FC
2023-03-16€35MChelsea FC
2023-06-20€35MChelsea FC
2023-12-19€30MChelsea FC
2024-05-27€28MChelsea FC
2024-10-01€22MChelsea FC
2024-12-16€20MChelsea FC
2025-03-18€18MCrystal Palace
2025-05-30€15MCrystal Palace
2025-12-15€12MRC Strasbourg Alsace
2026-06-01€10MRC Strasbourg Alsace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.200

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chilwell appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).