Joel
Mvuka
RMNorway · Celtic FC
Player dossierPremiership
JoelMvuka
RMRight MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Celtic FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Norway
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Mvuka at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Mvuka during training, estimates €425k: the market value is 253% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €733k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 17
- Minutes
- 643
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 6/17
- Min / app
- 38
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mvuka…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jul 2020
- Peak
- €4.5M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, Celtic FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-24 | €25k | Åsane Fotball |
| 2020-12-31 | €50k | Åsane Fotball |
| 2021-07-26 | €100k | Åsane Fotball |
| 2022-01-03 | €300k | FK Bodø/Glimt |
| 2022-12-09 | €1.3M | FK Bodø/Glimt |
| 2023-06-29 | €4.5M | FK Bodø/Glimt |
| 2023-12-18 | €4M | FC Lorient |
| 2024-05-31 | €3.5M | BSC Young Boys |
| 2024-12-04 | €3M | FC Lorient |
| 2025-06-02 | €2.5M | FC Lorient |
| 2025-12-15 | €2M | FC Lorient |
| 2026-05-20 | €1.5M | Celtic FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +1.261
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 78% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Mvuka appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ButlandGKRangers FC · Premiership€1.5M
- RalstonRBCeltic FC · Premiership€1.5M
- BaningimeDMHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€1.5M
- McCowanCMCeltic FC · Premiership€1.5M
- HofmannAMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€1.5M
- AyhanDMGalatasaray · midfielders€1.5M
- PraetCMRoyal Antwerp FC · midfielders€1.5M
- NielsenCMStandard Liège · midfielders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).