JackButland

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: Rangers FC
League: Premiership
Nationality: England
Age: 33
Height: 196 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Butland at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Butland during training, estimates €853k: the market value is 76% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.76. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 87
Minutes: 7,890
Started: 87/87
Min / app: 91
Cards: 4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Butland…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,350 this player1,560 goalkeeper median98th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Aug 2011
Peak: €22M; May 2018
Model target: €1.5M; May 2026
Valuations: 34; 4 club changes

May 2026€1.5MRangers FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Rangers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2011-08-15	€50k	Birmingham City
2012-02-07	€250k	Birmingham City
2012-06-22	€1M	Birmingham City
2013-03-02	€5M	Birmingham City
2013-07-02	€5M	Stoke City
2014-01-15	€5M	Stoke City
2014-08-12	€5M	Stoke City
2015-02-12	€3.5M	Stoke City
2015-07-01	€4M	Stoke City
2016-02-09	€9M	Stoke City
2016-08-01	€9M	Stoke City
2017-02-20	€9M	Stoke City
2017-06-28	€15M	Stoke City
2018-01-02	€18M	Stoke City
2018-05-28	€22M	Stoke City
2019-02-27	€18M	Stoke City
2019-06-28	€15M	Stoke City
2019-10-16	€12M	Stoke City
2020-02-27	€8M	Stoke City
2020-04-08	€6.5M	Stoke City
2020-10-15	€3.5M	Stoke City
2021-03-18	€3M	Crystal Palace
2021-06-08	€2M	Crystal Palace
2021-12-23	€2M	Crystal Palace
2022-06-15	€1.8M	Crystal Palace
2022-11-03	€1.5M	Crystal Palace
2023-06-20	€1.5M	Manchester United
2023-09-22	€2M	Rangers FC
2023-12-05	€3M	Rangers FC
2024-05-30	€3M	Rangers FC
2024-12-03	€3M	Rangers FC
2025-06-17	€1.5M	Rangers FC
2025-12-10	€1.5M	Rangers FC
2026-05-20	€1.5M	Rangers FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.564

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 78% of the 311 Premiership players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 55% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Butland appears

TerminalPremiership in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremiership on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).