FairValue

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Casper

Nielsen

CMDenmark · Standard Liège

№ 148365Emerging €996k +0.41

Player dossierPro League

CasperNielsen

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Standard Liège
League
Pro League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
32
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nielsen at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Nielsen during training, estimates €996k: the market value is 51% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.51. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.41A €996k▲ +0.13B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
2,574
Goals
6
Assists
4
Started
30/47
Min / app
55
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nielsen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €996k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Casper Nielsen's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 68th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 66th84thGoals68thAssists49thMinutes40thStarts61stRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.21 this player0.08 midfielder median84th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2012
Peak
€8M
Nov 2022
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MStandard LiègeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Standard Liège. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-25€50kEsbjerg fB
2013-06-17€100kEsbjerg fB
2014-02-10€150kEsbjerg fB
2014-08-31€250kEsbjerg fB
2015-02-06€250kEsbjerg fB
2015-09-02€300kEsbjerg fB
2016-01-21€400kEsbjerg fB
2016-08-12€500kEsbjerg fB
2016-12-12€400kEsbjerg fB
2017-03-27€500kOdense Boldklub
2017-06-21€450kOdense Boldklub
2017-12-18€400kOdense Boldklub
2018-06-02€450kOdense Boldklub
2018-12-21€450kOdense Boldklub
2019-06-08€600kOdense Boldklub
2019-11-13€750kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2020-03-30€850kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2020-04-08€675kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2020-10-21€675kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2021-02-23€900kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2021-10-06€1.2MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2022-01-06€2.5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2022-04-12€4.5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2022-05-26€5.5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2022-11-04€8MClub Brugge KV
2023-06-09€6.5MClub Brugge KV
2023-10-23€5MClub Brugge KV
2023-12-19€5MClub Brugge KV
2024-03-22€4MClub Brugge KV
2024-06-04€3.5MClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€3MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€2.5MClub Brugge KV
2025-10-01€2MStandard Liège
2025-12-10€1.5MStandard Liège
2026-06-04€1.5MStandard Liège

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.410

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 39% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nielsen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).