LukaGugeshashvili

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: Atromitos Athens
League: Super League
Nationality: Georgia
Age: 27
Height: 196 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gugeshashvili at €700k. Model A, which never saw Gugeshashvili during training, estimates €424k: the market value is 65% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €879k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 30
Minutes: 2,700
Started: 30/30
Min / app: 90
Cards: 3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gugeshashvili…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Jan 2016
Peak: €900k; May 2025
Model target: €700k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 23; 7 club changes

Jun 2026€700kAtromitos AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, Atromitos Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2016-01-10	€50k	Jagiellonia Bialystok U19
2018-08-29	€150k	FC Dila Gori
2019-01-05	€250k	FC Dila Gori
2019-05-05	€450k	FC Dila Gori
2019-09-07	€450k	Recreativo Granada
2020-04-08	€400k	FC Dila Gori
2020-08-06	€400k	FC Dila Gori
2020-12-11	€350k	FC Dila Gori
2021-01-19	€350k	FC Dila Gori
2021-05-01	€350k	FC Dila Gori
2021-10-01	€350k	FC Dila Gori
2021-12-18	€450k	FC Dila Gori
2022-05-24	€400k	Qarabağ FK
2022-12-27	€500k	Qarabağ FK
2023-05-31	€600k	Qarabağ FK
2023-12-27	€600k	Qarabağ FK
2024-06-10	€500k	Qarabağ FK
2024-12-18	€500k	Panserraikos
2025-03-14	€700k	Panserraikos
2025-05-23	€900k	Panserraikos
2025-12-12	€800k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2026-03-06	€700k	Atromitos Athens
2026-06-04	€700k	Atromitos Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.501

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 55% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Gugeshashvili appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).