FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Marko

Dmitrovic

GKSerbia · RCD Espanyol Barcelona

№ 94308Emerging €1.9M −0.99

Player dossierLaLiga

MarkoDmitrovic

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
RCD Espanyol Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Serbia
Age
34
Height
189 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dmitrovic at €700k. Model A, which never saw Dmitrovic during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.99A €1.9M▼ −0.67B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
6,210
Started
69/69
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dmitrovic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €1.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Marko Dmitrovic's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 88th, European club minutes 32nd87thMinutes62ndStarts88thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,330 this player1,560 goalkeeper median88th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Oct 2010
Peak
€12M
Dec 2019
Model target
€700k
Jun 2026
Valuations
37
7 club changes
Jun 2026€700kRCD Espanyol BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, RCD Espanyol Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-10-11€250kRed Star Belgrade
2011-04-19€250kRed Star Belgrade
2011-10-26€250kRed Star Belgrade
2012-04-09€250kRed Star Belgrade
2012-11-02€300kRed Star Belgrade
2014-01-02€200kÚjpest FC
2014-07-24€300kÚjpest FC
2015-02-24€300kCharlton Athletic
2015-09-20€300kAD Alcorcón
2015-11-20€500kAD Alcorcón
2016-02-22€800kAD Alcorcón
2016-07-15€1MAD Alcorcón
2017-01-24€1MAD Alcorcón
2017-06-29€1MAD Alcorcón
2018-01-01€2.5MSD Eibar
2018-05-30€4MSD Eibar
2018-09-16€7.5MSD Eibar
2018-12-21€10MSD Eibar
2019-06-11€10MSD Eibar
2019-12-20€12MSD Eibar
2020-04-08€9.5MSD Eibar
2020-10-08€10MSD Eibar
2021-01-05€10MSD Eibar
2021-06-10€8MSD Eibar
2021-12-30€6MSevilla FC
2022-06-03€5MSevilla FC
2022-11-07€5MSevilla FC
2023-03-23€4MSevilla FC
2023-06-13€4MSevilla FC
2023-10-13€2MSevilla FC
2023-12-22€2MSevilla FC
2024-03-21€1MSevilla FC
2024-06-07€900kSevilla FC
2024-12-27€800kCD Leganés
2025-06-09€800kCD Leganés
2025-12-12€800kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2026-06-05€700kRCD Espanyol Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.988

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 4% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dmitrovic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).