Timo
Horn
GKGermany · VfL Bochum
Player dossierBundesliga
TimoHorn
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- VfL Bochum
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 16 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Horn at €700k. Model A, which never saw Horn during training, estimates €434k: the market value is 61% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €285k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 13
- Minutes
- 1,170
- Started
- 13/13
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Horn…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2010
- Peak
- €12M
- Jun 2017
- Model target
- €700k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 36
- 4 club changes
Dec 2025: €700k, VfL Bochum. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-07-15 | €100k | 1.FC Köln II |
| 2011-07-11 | €250k | 1.FC Köln |
| 2012-01-23 | €500k | 1.FC Köln |
| 2012-06-29 | €500k | 1.FC Köln |
| 2012-10-23 | €800k | 1.FC Köln |
| 2013-01-04 | €1M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2013-06-29 | €2M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2014-01-20 | €2.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2014-06-30 | €3M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2014-11-03 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2015-02-04 | €5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2015-07-01 | €6M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2016-02-15 | €8M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2016-07-22 | €10M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2017-02-07 | €10M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2017-06-19 | €12M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2017-12-28 | €12M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2018-06-05 | €7M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2019-01-08 | €7M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2019-06-12 | €6M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2019-12-17 | €5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2020-04-08 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2021-02-10 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2021-06-09 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2021-12-22 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2022-03-24 | €2.8M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2022-06-09 | €2M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2022-11-09 | €1.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2023-06-22 | €1.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2023-10-25 | €1.2M | Without Club |
| 2024-03-11 | €1M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2024-05-21 | €800k | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2024-12-20 | €500k | VfL Bochum |
| 2025-03-27 | €800k | VfL Bochum |
| 2025-06-05 | €800k | VfL Bochum |
| 2025-12-16 | €700k | VfL Bochum |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.477
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 3% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Horn appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BlaswichGKBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€700k
- MüllerGKVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€700k
- BredlowGKVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€700k
- HoltmannLWVfL Bochum · Bundesliga€700k
- DmitrovicGKRCD Espanyol Barcelona · goalkeepers€700k
- DupéGKOGC Nice · goalkeepers€700k
- BrignoliGKAEK Athens · goalkeepers€700k
- PavlenkaGKPAOK Thessaloniki · goalkeepers€700k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).