Kerem
Demirbay
CMGermany · Kasimpasa
Player dossierSüper Lig
KeremDemirbay
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Kasimpasa
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 183 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Demirbay at €1M. Model A, which never saw Demirbay during training, estimates €555k: the market value is 80% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 57
- Minutes
- 2,974
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 30/57
- Min / app
- 52
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Demirbay…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
2,252 this player1,541 midfielder median72nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2012
- Peak
- €32M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €1M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 38
- 9 club changes
May 2026: €1M, Kasimpasa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-07-05 | €100k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2012-12-28 | €200k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2013-06-28 | €350k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2014-07-10 | €350k | Hamburger SV |
| 2014-10-01 | €700k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-01-13 | €1M | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-07-01 | €1.3M | Hamburger SV |
| 2016-02-11 | €1.3M | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| 2016-07-22 | €1.8M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2017-02-07 | €4.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2017-06-19 | €10M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2017-12-28 | €12M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-06-05 | €12M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-12-18 | €20M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-03-06 | €25M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-06-05 | €32M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-12-17 | €30M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2020-04-08 | €24M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2020-11-26 | €18M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-02-10 | €18M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-06-09 | €18M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-12-22 | €15M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2022-06-09 | €15M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2022-11-09 | €12M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2023-03-29 | €9M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2023-06-22 | €6M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2023-09-27 | €6M | Galatasaray |
| 2023-12-21 | €4.7M | Galatasaray |
| 2024-03-15 | €4.7M | Galatasaray |
| 2024-05-31 | €4.8M | Galatasaray |
| 2024-10-04 | €4.4M | Galatasaray |
| 2024-12-23 | €3.8M | Galatasaray |
| 2025-03-20 | €3M | Galatasaray |
| 2025-06-18 | €2.3M | Galatasaray |
| 2025-10-01 | €2M | Eyüpspor |
| 2025-12-17 | €1.5M | Eyüpspor |
| 2026-03-05 | €1.2M | Kasimpasa |
| 2026-05-21 | €1M | Kasimpasa |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.588
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 40% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Demirbay appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- DzhikiyaCBAntalyaspor · Süper Lig€1M
- BrenetRBKayserispor · Süper Lig€1M
- KılınçLWSamsunspor · Süper Lig€1M
- HøjerLBCaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig€1M
- ParejoCMVillarreal CF · midfielders€1M
- Oxlade-ChamberlainCMCeltic FC · midfielders€1M
- VecinoCMCelta de Vigo · midfielders€1M
- SuárezAMDeportivo Alavés · midfielders€1M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).