FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Matías

Vecino

CMUruguay · Celta de Vigo

№ 143812Emerging €1.2M −0.19

Player dossierLaLiga

MatíasVecino

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Celta de Vigo
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
34
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vecino at €1M. Model A, which never saw Vecino during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €1.2M▼ −0.16B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
2,629
Goals
2
Assists
7
Started
26/55
Min / app
48
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vecino…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Matías Vecino's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 43rd, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 51st, Starts 18th, Minutes, last 365 days 37th, European club minutes 98th43rdGoals91stAssists51stMinutes18thStarts37thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

37% this player0% midfielder median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
Aug 2010
Peak
€25M
Oct 2018
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
7 club changes
Jun 2026€1MCelta de VigoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Celta de Vigo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-08-20€125kCentral Español FC
2011-02-01€250kCentral Español FC
2011-08-24€275kClub Nacional
2012-02-21€350kClub Nacional
2012-08-06€500kClub Nacional
2013-02-12€2.3MACF Fiorentina
2013-06-19€2.3MACF Fiorentina
2014-01-07€2.3MACF Fiorentina
2014-07-01€2.5MACF Fiorentina
2015-01-07€3.2MFC Empoli
2015-07-01€4.2MACF Fiorentina
2015-11-05€6MACF Fiorentina
2016-01-04€7.5MACF Fiorentina
2016-04-01€10MACF Fiorentina
2016-07-15€12MACF Fiorentina
2017-01-02€11MACF Fiorentina
2017-06-08€13MACF Fiorentina
2017-10-13€17MInter Milan
2017-12-29€23MInter Milan
2018-06-07€21MInter Milan
2018-10-12€25MInter Milan
2018-12-20€25MInter Milan
2019-06-06€23MInter Milan
2019-12-12€23MInter Milan
2020-04-08€18.5MInter Milan
2020-08-25€16MInter Milan
2020-12-29€12MInter Milan
2021-06-03€8MInter Milan
2021-12-28€5MInter Milan
2022-06-07€3.5MInter Milan
2022-11-11€4.5MSS Lazio
2023-06-15€4.5MSS Lazio
2023-12-20€3MSS Lazio
2024-06-05€2.5MSS Lazio
2024-12-18€2.5MSS Lazio
2025-06-17€2MSS Lazio
2025-12-23€1.5MSS Lazio
2026-06-05€1MCelta de Vigo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.186

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vecino appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).