FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Denis

Suárez

AMSpain · Deportivo Alavés

№ 165007Emerging €1.2M −0.20

Player dossierLaLiga

DenisSuárez

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Deportivo Alavés
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
32
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Suárez at €1M. Model A, which never saw Suárez during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €990k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €1.2M▲ +0.01B €990k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
2,271
Goals
2
Assists
3
Started
25/54
Min / app
42
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Suárez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Denis Suárez's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 49th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 17th, Minutes, last 365 days 52nd, European club minutes 30th49thGoals60thAssists43rdMinutes17thStarts52ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.09 midfielder median60th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jun 2013
Peak
€18M
Jan 2017
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
9 club changes
Jun 2026€1MDeportivo AlavésValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Deportivo Alavés. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-06-22€500kManchester City U21
2013-06-27€1MManchester City U21
2013-10-15€2.5MFC Barcelona B
2014-02-06€2.5MFC Barcelona B
2014-03-28€3.5MFC Barcelona B
2014-07-20€5MSevilla FC
2014-10-23€8MSevilla FC
2015-01-23€12MSevilla FC
2015-07-01€12MSevilla FC
2016-02-22€12MVillarreal CF
2016-07-15€15MFC Barcelona
2017-01-24€18MFC Barcelona
2017-06-05€18MFC Barcelona
2018-01-01€18MFC Barcelona
2018-03-22€15MFC Barcelona
2018-05-30€15MFC Barcelona
2018-12-21€12MFC Barcelona
2019-06-13€12MArsenal FC
2019-12-20€12MCelta de Vigo
2020-04-08€9.5MCelta de Vigo
2020-10-08€10MCelta de Vigo
2021-01-05€10MCelta de Vigo
2021-06-10€12MCelta de Vigo
2021-12-30€10MCelta de Vigo
2022-06-03€10MCelta de Vigo
2022-09-23€5MCelta de Vigo
2022-11-07€5MCelta de Vigo
2023-06-13€5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2023-10-13€2.5MVillarreal CF
2023-12-22€2MVillarreal CF
2024-06-07€1.5MVillarreal CF
2024-12-27€1.3MVillarreal CF
2025-06-09€1.2MVillarreal CF
2025-12-12€1.2MDeportivo Alavés
2026-06-05€1MDeportivo Alavés

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.196

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Suárez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).