ErmirRashica

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
League: Premier Liha
Nationality: Albania
Age: 22
Height: 187 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rashica at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Rashica during training, estimates €872k: the market value is 38% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 32
Minutes: 2,013
Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Started: 23/32
Min / app: 63
Cards: 2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rashica…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,013 this player1,301 attacker median73rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €25k; Dec 2022
Peak: €1.2M; Jun 2026
Model target: €1.2M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 9; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€1.2MMetalist 1925 KharkivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2022-12-01	€25k	Unknown
2023-07-11	€25k	Unknown
2023-10-26	€200k	KF Skënderbeu
2023-12-29	€250k	KF Skënderbeu
2024-05-27	€350k	KF Skënderbeu
2024-11-15	€500k	KF Skënderbeu
2025-06-10	€600k	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2025-12-18	€800k	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2026-06-02	€1.2M	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.319

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 82% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Rashica appears

TerminalPremier Liha in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier Liha on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).