FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Bruninho

AMBrazil · Karpaty Lviv

№ 584083Emerging €1.4M −0.18

Player dossierPremier Liha

Bruninho

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Karpaty Lviv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Brazil
Age
26
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bruninho at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Bruninho during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.18A €1.4M▼ −2.05B €9.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,851
Goals
17
Assists
8
Started
46/52
Min / app
74
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bruninho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Bruninho's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 65th, European club minutes 30th98thGoals81stAssists72ndMinutes84thStarts65thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.40 this player0.08 midfielder median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
May 2018
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2025
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
6 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MKarpaty LvivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Karpaty Lviv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-23€50kUnknown
2019-02-18€50kClube Atlético Mineiro
2019-10-16€500kClube Atlético Mineiro
2019-11-27€750kClube Atlético Mineiro
2020-04-08€675kSport Club do Recife
2020-09-09€650kSport Club do Recife
2021-02-09€550kSport Club do Recife
2021-05-28€500kEsporte Clube Juventude
2021-12-17€600kEsporte Clube Juventude
2022-04-06€600kEsporte Clube Juventude
2023-07-18€600kGuarani Futebol Clube (SP)
2023-11-27€1MGuarani Futebol Clube (SP)
2024-04-18€1MCeará Sporting Club
2024-12-17€800kKarpaty Lviv
2025-06-10€1.2MKarpaty Lviv
2025-12-18€1.2MKarpaty Lviv
2026-06-02€1.2MKarpaty Lviv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.175

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 82% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bruninho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).