Pablo
Álvarez
DMSpain · Karpaty Lviv
Player dossierPremier Liha
PabloÁlvarez
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Karpaty Lviv
- League
- Premier Liha
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
Premier LihaReading the valuation
The market values Álvarez at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Álvarez during training, estimates €722k: the market value is 66% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 41
- Minutes
- 3,370
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 40/41
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 13Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Álvarez…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
98% this player69% midfielder median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Sept 2019
- Peak
- €1.2M
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €1.2M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 14
- 4 club changes
Dec 2025: €1.2M, Karpaty Lviv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-10 | €50k | Deportivo Alavés B |
| 2020-02-11 | €100k | Deportivo Alavés B |
| 2021-06-17 | €300k | Cherno More Varna |
| 2021-10-14 | €400k | Cherno More Varna |
| 2021-12-08 | €450k | Cherno More Varna |
| 2022-05-31 | €550k | Cherno More Varna |
| 2022-11-08 | €450k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2023-06-06 | €250k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2023-09-15 | €350k | Cherno More Varna |
| 2023-12-20 | €500k | Cherno More Varna |
| 2024-06-03 | €600k | Cherno More Varna |
| 2024-12-17 | €800k | Karpaty Lviv |
| 2025-06-10 | €1.2M | Karpaty Lviv |
| 2025-12-18 | €1.2M | Karpaty Lviv |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.508
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liha414 players · median €400k
Valued above 82% of the 414 Premier Liha players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Álvarez appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MuravskyiCBLNZ Cherkasy · Premier Liha€1.2M
- GorinCBLNZ Cherkasy · Premier Liha€1.2M
- BruninhoAMKarpaty Lviv · Premier Liha€1.2M
- RyabovCMLNZ Cherkasy · Premier Liha€1.2M
- WitselDMGirona FC · midfielders€1.2M
- HendersonDMBrentford FC · midfielders€1.2M
- CabellaAMFC Nantes · midfielders€1.2M
- OzdoevDMPAOK Thessaloniki · midfielders€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).