FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Yaimar

Medina

LBEcuador · KRC Genk

№ 893659Established €3.7M +0.07

Player dossierPro League

YaimarMedina

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
KRC Genk
League
Pro League
Nationality
Ecuador
Age
21
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Medina at €4M. Model A, which never saw Medina during training, estimates €3.7M: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €3.7M▼ −0.87B €9.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
2,196
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
25/39
Min / app
56
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Medina…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €3.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Yaimar Medina's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 37th, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 67th, European club minutes 95th57thGoals83rdAssists37thMinutes19thStarts67thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% defender median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2022
Peak
€4M
Dec 2025
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
Jun 2026€4MKRC GenkValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, KRC Genk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-20€100kIndependiente Juniors
2022-12-30€250kIndependiente del Valle
2023-07-14€600kIndependiente del Valle
2023-12-05€600kIndependiente del Valle
2024-06-06€600kIndependiente del Valle
2024-09-24€2MIndependiente del Valle
2024-12-16€3.5MIndependiente del Valle
2025-06-12€3.5MKRC Genk
2025-12-10€4MKRC Genk
2026-06-04€4MKRC Genk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.066

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 78% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Medina appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).