FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Thérence

Koudou

RBFrance · KV Mechelen

№ 910176Established €5.9M −0.39

Player dossierPro League

ThérenceKoudou

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
KV Mechelen
League
Pro League
Nationality
France
Age
21
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Koudou at €4M. Model A, which never saw Koudou during training, estimates €5.9M: the market value is 32% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.39A €5.9M▼ −0.23B €5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
3,060
Goals
5
Assists
2
Started
36/37
Min / app
83
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koudou…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €5.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Thérence Koudou's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 95th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 30th95thGoals63rdAssists54thMinutes91stStarts90thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.15 this player0.03 defender median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
May 2023
Peak
€4M
Jun 2026
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
9
4 club changes
Jun 2026€4MKV MechelenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, KV Mechelen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-05-17€100kStade Reims B
2023-10-27€400kPau FC
2023-12-13€600kPau FC
2024-06-03€800kStade Reims
2024-12-04€1MPau FC
2025-03-12€1.5MPau FC
2025-06-02€2MPau FC
2025-12-10€3MKV Mechelen
2026-06-04€4MKV Mechelen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.386

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 78% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Koudou appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).