FairValue

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Portrait of Sead Kolasinac

Sead

Kolasinac

CBBosnia-Herzegovina · Atalanta BC

№ 94005Established €3.1M +0.24

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

SeadKolasinac

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Atalanta BC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Age
32
Height
183 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kolasinac at €4M. Model A, which never saw Kolasinac during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €3.1M▲ +0.48B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
4,517
Goals
1
Assists
4
Started
57/62
Min / app
73
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kolasinac…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Sead Kolasinac's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 71st, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 89th40thGoals71stAssists77thMinutes76thStarts55thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% defender median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2012
Peak
€20M
Dec 2018
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
35
5 club changes
May 2026€4MAtalanta BCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-07-05€200kFC Schalke 04
2012-10-23€400kFC Schalke 04
2013-01-13€800kFC Schalke 04
2013-03-11€1.5MFC Schalke 04
2013-06-30€2.8MFC Schalke 04
2014-02-12€3.5MFC Schalke 04
2014-03-31€5MFC Schalke 04
2014-07-10€7MFC Schalke 04
2015-02-04€7MFC Schalke 04
2015-07-01€7MFC Schalke 04
2016-02-15€7MFC Schalke 04
2016-07-22€6MFC Schalke 04
2017-02-07€9MFC Schalke 04
2017-06-19€15MFC Schalke 04
2018-01-02€18MArsenal FC
2018-05-28€18MArsenal FC
2018-12-19€20MArsenal FC
2019-06-13€20MArsenal FC
2019-12-10€20MArsenal FC
2020-04-08€16MArsenal FC
2020-10-13€10MArsenal FC
2020-12-17€8MArsenal FC
2021-06-09€6.5MFC Schalke 04
2021-10-05€3.5MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€3MArsenal FC
2022-05-30€3MOlympique Marseille
2022-11-02€3MOlympique Marseille
2023-03-27€5MOlympique Marseille
2023-06-27€8MOlympique Marseille
2023-12-20€8MAtalanta BC
2024-06-05€10MAtalanta BC
2024-12-18€10MAtalanta BC
2025-06-17€7MAtalanta BC
2025-12-23€6MAtalanta BC
2026-05-29€4MAtalanta BC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.243

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 39% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kolasinac appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).