FairValue

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Nicolás

Tagliafico

LBArgentina · Olympique Lyon

№ 131225Established €2.1M +0.64

Player dossierLigue 1

NicolásTagliafico

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Olympique Lyon
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Argentina
Age
33
Height
172 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tagliafico at €4M. Model A, which never saw Tagliafico during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 90% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.90. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.64A €2.1M▲ +1.29B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
4,522
Goals
5
Assists
6
Started
51/61
Min / app
74
Cards
18Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tagliafico…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nicolás Tagliafico's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 57th, European club minutes 94th87thGoals82ndAssists77thMinutes52ndStarts57thRecent94thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

29% this player0% defender median94th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Apr 2010
Peak
€35M
Dec 2019
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
5 club changes
Jun 2026€4MOlympique LyonValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Olympique Lyon. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-04-20€50kUnknown
2011-01-01€100kUnknown
2012-12-02€400kReal Murcia CF
2013-05-12€500kReal Murcia CF
2015-01-11€1MCA Banfield
2015-07-14€2MCA Independiente
2016-02-06€3.6MCA Independiente
2016-08-08€4MCA Independiente
2017-02-13€4.5MCA Independiente
2017-10-09€6MCA Independiente
2018-01-17€7MAjax Amsterdam
2018-03-27€9MAjax Amsterdam
2018-06-12€12MAjax Amsterdam
2018-10-04€16MAjax Amsterdam
2018-12-28€20MAjax Amsterdam
2019-03-13€25MAjax Amsterdam
2019-06-12€28MAjax Amsterdam
2019-12-18€35MAjax Amsterdam
2020-04-08€28MAjax Amsterdam
2020-10-14€28MAjax Amsterdam
2021-01-06€25MAjax Amsterdam
2021-05-19€22MAjax Amsterdam
2021-10-04€18MAjax Amsterdam
2022-01-05€16MAjax Amsterdam
2022-03-17€12MAjax Amsterdam
2022-06-08€11MAjax Amsterdam
2022-11-02€9MOlympique Lyon
2023-06-27€9MOlympique Lyon
2023-12-18€8MOlympique Lyon
2024-06-03€8MOlympique Lyon
2024-12-10€7MOlympique Lyon
2025-06-03€6MOlympique Lyon
2025-12-15€5MOlympique Lyon
2026-06-01€4MOlympique Lyon

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.640

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 37% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tagliafico appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).