FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Yuriy

Koledin

RBRussia · FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

№ 817386Emerging €1M −0.31

Player dossierPremier Liga

YuriyKoledin

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
21
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Koledin at €750k. Model A, which never saw Koledin during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €937k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.31A €1M▼ −0.22B €937k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,708
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
18/24
Min / app
71
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koledin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Yuriy Koledin's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals58thAssists27thMinutes35thStarts51stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.05 this player0.04 defender median58th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2021
Peak
€750k
May 2026
Model target
€750k
May 2026
Valuations
10
6 club changes
May 2026€750kFC Pari Nizhniy NovgorodValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €750k, FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-24€50kAkademia Zenit St. Petersburg U17
2022-06-02€50kAkademia Zenit St. Petersburg U17
2022-11-21€75kZenit St. Petersburg II
2023-06-26€100kZvezda St. Petersburg
2023-11-20€100kZvezda St. Petersburg
2024-06-04€150kSpartak 2 Moscow
2024-12-04€300kTorpedo Moscow
2025-06-04€250kLeon Saturn Ramenskoe
2025-12-16€500kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2026-05-26€750kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.308

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 29% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 28% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Koledin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).