FairValue

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Eldar

Civic

LBBosnia-Herzegovina · Baltika Kaliningrad

№ 317764Emerging €860k −0.14

Player dossierPremier Liga

EldarCivic

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Baltika Kaliningrad
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Age
29
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Civic at €750k. Model A, which never saw Civic during training, estimates €860k: the market value is 13% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €807k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.14A €860k▼ −0.07B €807k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
999
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
10/23
Min / app
43
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Civic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €860k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Eldar Civic's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 83rd, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th83rdGoals99thAssists12thMinutes4thStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.27 this player0.04 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Oct 2015
Peak
€1.5M
Oct 2020
Model target
€750k
May 2026
Valuations
25
3 club changes
May 2026€750kBaltika KaliningradValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €750k, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-10-15€200k1.FC Slovacko
2016-08-03€350k1.FC Slovacko
2016-12-19€350k1.FC Slovacko
2017-06-10€600k1.FC Slovacko
2017-12-21€600kAC Sparta Prague
2018-07-14€625kAC Sparta Prague
2018-10-29€900kAC Sparta Prague
2018-12-30€1MAC Sparta Prague
2019-06-25€1MAC Sparta Prague
2019-10-30€1MFerencvárosi TC
2020-04-08€800kFerencvárosi TC
2020-07-28€1MFerencvárosi TC
2020-10-23€1.5MFerencvárosi TC
2021-01-24€1.2MFerencvárosi TC
2021-06-01€1.5MFerencvárosi TC
2022-01-07€1.5MFerencvárosi TC
2022-06-07€1.5MFerencvárosi TC
2023-02-22€1.5MFerencvárosi TC
2023-06-07€1.2MFerencvárosi TC
2023-12-22€1MFerencvárosi TC
2024-05-23€750kFerencvárosi TC
2024-12-23€700kFerencvárosi TC
2025-05-28€750kFerencvárosi TC
2025-12-16€750kBaltika Kaliningrad
2026-05-26€750kBaltika Kaliningrad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.137

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 29% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 28% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Civic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).