FairValue

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Mike van der

Hoorn

CBNetherlands · FC Utrecht

№ 187105Emerging €1M −0.33

Player dossierEredivisie

Mike van derHoorn

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Utrecht
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
33
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hoorn at €750k. Model A, which never saw Hoorn during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.33A €1M▼ −1.61B €3.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
78
Minutes
6,052
Goals
6
Assists
2
Started
70/78
Min / app
78
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hoorn…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Mike van der Hoorn's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 83rd, Assists per 90 44th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 68th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 80th83rdGoals44thAssists93rdMinutes68thStarts94thRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,290 this player1,687 defender median94th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
May 2011
Peak
€3.5M
Oct 2019
Model target
€750k
May 2026
Valuations
34
6 club changes
May 2026€750kFC UtrechtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €750k, FC Utrecht. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-05-16€50kFC Utrecht U19
2012-01-23€75kFC Utrecht U21
2012-07-21€300kFC Utrecht
2013-01-13€1MFC Utrecht
2013-06-04€3MFC Utrecht
2014-02-11€2MAjax Amsterdam
2014-08-11€2MAjax Amsterdam
2015-02-16€2MAjax Amsterdam
2015-07-01€2MAjax Amsterdam
2016-02-05€2MAjax Amsterdam
2016-08-01€2.5MSwansea City
2017-02-20€2MSwansea City
2017-06-28€2MSwansea City
2018-01-02€2MSwansea City
2018-05-28€2.5MSwansea City
2019-06-28€2.5MSwansea City
2019-10-17€3.5MSwansea City
2020-02-27€3.5MSwansea City
2020-04-08€2.8MSwansea City
2020-11-26€3MArminia Bielefeld
2021-02-10€2.7MArminia Bielefeld
2021-06-09€2MArminia Bielefeld
2021-10-04€1.6MFC Utrecht
2022-01-05€1.6MFC Utrecht
2022-06-08€1.6MFC Utrecht
2022-11-11€1.5MFC Utrecht
2023-06-23€1.5MFC Utrecht
2023-10-17€1MFC Utrecht
2023-12-15€1MFC Utrecht
2024-05-31€1.2MFC Utrecht
2024-12-17€1.2MFC Utrecht
2025-05-28€1MFC Utrecht
2025-12-02€800kFC Utrecht
2026-05-28€750kFC Utrecht

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.330

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 38% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 28% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hoorn appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).