FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Moussa

Ndiaye

LBSenegal · FC Schalke 04

№ 649022Established €3M +0.28

Player dossierBundesliga

MoussaNdiaye

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
FC Schalke 04
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Senegal
Age
23
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ndiaye at €4M. Model A, which never saw Ndiaye during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 32% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.28A €3M▼ −0.09B €4.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
3,216
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
36/50
Min / app
64
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ndiaye…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Moussa Ndiaye's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 61st, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 84th18thGoals61stAssists57thMinutes30thStarts33rdRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

19% this player0% defender median84th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
May 2019
Peak
€4M
Jun 2026
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
4 club changes
Jun 2026€4MFC Schalke 04Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, FC Schalke 04. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-05-23€150kUnknown
2020-10-08€500kFC Barcelona U19
2021-12-30€500kFC Barcelona B
2022-03-21€300kFC Barcelona B
2022-06-29€200kFC Barcelona B
2022-09-07€800kRSC Anderlecht
2022-11-04€1.5MRSC Anderlecht
2023-06-09€1.5MRSC Anderlecht
2023-10-23€2.5MRSC Anderlecht
2023-12-19€2.2MRSC Anderlecht
2024-06-04€1.8MRSC Anderlecht
2024-12-11€3MRSC Anderlecht
2025-06-12€3MRSC Anderlecht
2025-12-10€3MRSC Anderlecht
2026-06-01€4MFC Schalke 04

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.278

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 39% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ndiaye appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).