FairValue

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Philip

Otele

LWNigeria · Hamburger SV

№ 678655Established €3.4M +0.18

Player dossierBundesliga

PhilipOtele

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Hamburger SV
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
27
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Otele at €4M. Model A, which never saw Otele during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 19% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.18A €3.4M▲ +1.09B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
18
Minutes
1,101
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
14/18
Min / app
61
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Otele…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Philip Otele's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 47th, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 22nd, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 99th47thGoals25thAssists22ndMinutes80thStarts42ndRecent99thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

57% this player0% attacker median99th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Apr 2020
Peak
€5M
Oct 2025
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
16
5 club changes
May 2026€4MHamburger SVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Hamburger SV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-04-02€50kFK Kauno Zalgiris
2020-08-10€150kFK Kauno Zalgiris
2021-12-07€300kFK Kauno Zalgiris
2022-06-03€450kUTA Arad
2022-09-30€550kUTA Arad
2022-12-21€650kUTA Arad
2023-06-15€650kUTA Arad
2023-09-28€800kCFR Cluj
2023-12-22€1MCFR Cluj
2024-03-22€1.5MCFR Cluj
2024-06-05€2.5MCFR Cluj
2024-11-18€2MAl-Wahda FC
2025-06-10€4MFC Basel 1893
2025-10-02€5MFC Basel 1893
2025-12-29€5MFC Basel 1893
2026-05-27€4MHamburger SV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.177

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 39% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Otele appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).