Ilya
Kirsh
CBRussia · FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
Player dossierPremier Liga
IlyaKirsh
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
- League
- Premier Liga
- Nationality
- Russia
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 26 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Kirsh at €750k. Model A, which never saw Kirsh during training, estimates €567k: the market value is 32% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 18
- Minutes
- 1,244
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 15/18
- Min / app
- 69
- Cards
- 1Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kirsh…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
83% this player83% defender median52nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2021
- Peak
- €750k
- May 2026
- Model target
- €750k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €750k, FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-24 | €50k | Zenit St. Petersburg II |
| 2022-06-02 | €50k | Zenit St. Petersburg II |
| 2022-12-02 | €175k | Zenit 2 St. Petersburg |
| 2023-06-26 | €150k | Zenit 2 St. Petersburg |
| 2023-12-13 | €200k | FC Rostov |
| 2024-06-04 | €200k | FC Rostov |
| 2024-12-12 | €300k | Dinamo Makhachkala |
| 2025-06-04 | €300k | Dinamo Makhachkala |
| 2025-09-18 | €400k | Chernomorets Novorossijsk |
| 2025-12-03 | €450k | Chernomorets Novorossijsk |
| 2026-03-25 | €600k | FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod |
| 2026-05-26 | €750k | FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.281
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liga412 players · median €1M
Valued above 29% of the 412 Premier Liga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 28% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Kirsh appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RahmanovicAMKrylya Sovetov Samara · Premier Liga€750k
- ChistyakovCBFC Rostov · Premier Liga€750k
- MedvedevGKFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod · Premier Liga€750k
- CivicLBBaltika Kaliningrad · Premier Liga€750k
- KabaseleCBUdinese Calcio · defenders€750k
- KrafthRBNewcastle United · defenders€750k
- HoornCBFC Utrecht · defenders€750k
- TaniguchiCBSint-Truidense VV · defenders€750k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).