FairValue

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Portrait of Jayden Oosterwolde

Jayden

Oosterwolde

CBNetherlands · Fenerbahce

№ 591361Elite €14.1M +0.35

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSüper Lig

JaydenOosterwolde

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Fenerbahce
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
25
Height
189 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Oosterwolde at €20M. Model A, which never saw Oosterwolde during training, estimates €14.1M: the market value is 42% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.35A €14.1M▲ +0.66B €10.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
4,980
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
55/57
Min / app
87
Cards
23Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Oosterwolde…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €14.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jayden Oosterwolde's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 88th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 97th18thGoals36thAssists83rdMinutes88thStarts98thRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,706 this player1,687 defender median98th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Aug 2020
Peak
€20M
May 2026
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
22
2 club changes
May 2026€20MFenerbahceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, Fenerbahce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-12€75kFC Twente Enschede
2020-10-14€500kFC Twente Enschede
2021-01-06€900kFC Twente Enschede
2021-05-19€1.2MFC Twente Enschede
2022-01-05€1MFC Twente Enschede
2022-06-06€1MParma Calcio 1913
2022-09-27€2MParma Calcio 1913
2022-12-22€2MParma Calcio 1913
2023-03-14€5.5MFenerbahce
2023-06-08€5MFenerbahce
2023-09-27€5.5MFenerbahce
2023-12-21€7MFenerbahce
2024-03-15€11MFenerbahce
2024-05-31€13MFenerbahce
2024-10-04€15MFenerbahce
2024-12-23€15MFenerbahce
2025-03-20€14MFenerbahce
2025-06-18€13MFenerbahce
2025-10-01€16MFenerbahce
2025-12-17€16MFenerbahce
2026-03-05€18MFenerbahce
2026-05-21€20MFenerbahce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.349

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Joint 9th highest observed value among 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Oosterwolde appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).