FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Kevin Danso

Kevin

Danso

CBAustria · Tottenham Hotspur

№ 263236Elite €21M −0.05

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

KevinDanso

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Tottenham Hotspur
League
Premier League
Nationality
Austria
Age
27
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Danso at €20M. Model A, which never saw Danso during training, estimates €21M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €16.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.05A €21M▲ +0.19B €16.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
4,537
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
50/63
Min / app
72
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Danso…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €21M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kevin Danso's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 80th18thGoals17thAssists77thMinutes43rdStarts71stRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

17% this player0% defender median80th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2017
Peak
€25M
Mar 2024
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
4 club changes
Jun 2026€20MTottenham HotspurValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Tottenham Hotspur. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-03-03€100kFC Augsburg
2017-03-22€200kFC Augsburg
2017-06-19€1MFC Augsburg
2017-12-28€3MFC Augsburg
2018-04-04€6MFC Augsburg
2018-06-05€6MFC Augsburg
2018-12-18€4.5MFC Augsburg
2019-03-06€6MFC Augsburg
2019-06-05€8MFC Augsburg
2019-12-10€7MSouthampton FC
2020-04-08€6.3MSouthampton FC
2020-09-10€5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2021-02-08€5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2021-06-16€5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2021-10-08€5.5MRC Lens
2021-12-16€5.5MRC Lens
2022-03-23€7MRC Lens
2022-05-30€9MRC Lens
2022-09-19€11MRC Lens
2022-11-02€14MRC Lens
2023-03-27€16MRC Lens
2023-06-27€22MRC Lens
2023-12-18€22MRC Lens
2024-03-19€25MRC Lens
2024-06-03€25MRC Lens
2024-12-10€25MRC Lens
2025-05-30€25MTottenham Hotspur
2025-12-09€22MTottenham Hotspur
2026-03-09€20MTottenham Hotspur
2026-06-03€20MTottenham Hotspur

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.050

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 54% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Danso appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).