FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Zdravko

Dimitrov

LWBulgaria · Bodrum FK

№ 587688Emerging €569k +0.05

Player dossierSüper Lig

ZdravkoDimitrov

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Bodrum FK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Bulgaria
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Dimitrov at €600k. Model A, which never saw Dimitrov during training, estimates €569k: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €571k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.05A €569k▲ +0.05B €571k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,493
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
15/29
Min / app
51
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dimitrov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €569k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Zdravko Dimitrov's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 17th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 28th17thGoals40thAssists32ndMinutes37thStarts9thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.15 attacker median40th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2019
Peak
€600k
Dec 2025
Model target
€600k
Dec 2025
Valuations
20
6 club changes
Dec 2025€600kBodrum FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €600k, Bodrum FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-24€50kSeptemvri Sofia
2019-06-24€125kSeptemvri Sofia
2020-02-02€150kLevski Sofia
2020-12-21€250kLevski Sofia
2021-06-17€200kLevski Sofia
2021-10-14€250kLevski Sofia
2021-12-08€275kLevski Sofia
2022-05-31€200kLevski Sofia
2022-11-28€250kSpartak Varna
2023-04-03€250kSakaryaspor
2023-06-23€250kSakaryaspor
2023-12-20€250kSeptemvri Sofia
2024-03-26€350kSakaryaspor
2024-06-13€450kSakaryaspor
2024-10-04€450kBodrum FK
2024-12-23€450kBodrum FK
2025-03-20€450kBodrum FK
2025-06-18€400kBodrum FK
2025-10-08€500kBodrum FK
2025-12-29€600kBodrum FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.053

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 23% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 19% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dimitrov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).