FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Burak

Bozan

GKTürkiye · Gaziantep FK

№ 587726Emerging €1.3M −0.76

Player dossierSüper Lig

BurakBozan

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Gaziantep FK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
25
Height
200 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bozan at €600k. Model A, which never saw Bozan during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 53% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.76A €1.3M▼ −1.46B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,725
Started
31/32
Min / app
85
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bozan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Burak Bozan's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 32nd49thMinutes16thStarts45thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,725 this player2,790 goalkeeper median49th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
May 2018
Peak
€800k
Oct 2025
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
27
4 club changes
May 2026€600kGaziantep FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Gaziantep FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-30€25kGaziantep FK U21
2019-01-07€25kGazisehir Gaziantep FK
2019-06-17€50kGazisehir Gaziantep FK
2020-01-03€50kGaziantep FK
2020-08-04€50kGaziantep FK
2020-12-23€50kGaziantep FK
2021-03-16€50kGaziantep FK
2021-05-21€50kGaziantep FK
2021-10-12€50kGaziantep FK
2022-01-04€50kGaziantep FK
2022-03-31€50kGaziantep FK
2022-06-01€50kGaziantep FK
2022-10-27€50kGaziantep FK
2023-04-03€125kTuzlaspor
2023-06-23€125kTuzlaspor
2023-09-27€100kGaziantep FK
2023-12-21€75kGaziantep FK
2024-03-15€50kGaziantep FK
2024-05-31€50kGaziantep FK
2024-10-04€50kGaziantep FK
2024-12-23€50kGaziantep FK
2025-03-20€275kGaziantep FK
2025-06-18€600kGaziantep FK
2025-10-01€800kGaziantep FK
2025-12-17€800kGaziantep FK
2026-03-05€700kGaziantep FK
2026-05-21€600kGaziantep FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.764

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 23% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 32% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bozan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).