FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Vicko

Sevelj

DMCroatia · Dundee United FC

№ 575209Emerging €914k −0.34

Player dossierPremiership

VickoSevelj

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Dundee United FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Croatia
Age
25
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sevelj at €650k. Model A, which never saw Sevelj during training, estimates €914k: the market value is 29% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.41. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.34A €914k▼ −1.25B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
5,289
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
59/65
Min / app
81
Cards
17Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sevelj…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €650k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €650kModel A €914k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Vicko Sevelj's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 26th, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 88th, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 68th26thGoals46thAssists89thMinutes88thStarts86thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,289 this player2,607 midfielder median89th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2020
Peak
€700k
Jun 2025
Model target
€650k
May 2026
Valuations
13
3 club changes
May 2026€650kDundee United FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €650k, Dundee United FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-12-28€100kHNK Hajduk Split II
2021-06-10€150kHNK Hajduk Split II
2021-12-08€150kFK Sarajevo
2022-06-27€250kNK Radomlje
2022-12-15€250kNK Radomlje
2023-05-25€200kNK Radomlje
2023-12-21€250kNK Radomlje
2024-05-24€250kNK Radomlje
2024-12-03€400kDundee United FC
2025-03-12€650kDundee United FC
2025-06-17€700kDundee United FC
2025-12-10€650kDundee United FC
2026-05-20€650kDundee United FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.341

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 68% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€650kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€650kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sevelj appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).