Ryan
Thomas
DMNew Zealand · PEC Zwolle
Player dossierEredivisie
RyanThomas
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- PEC Zwolle
- League
- Eredivisie
- Nationality
- New Zealand
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
EredivisieReading the valuation
The market values Thomas at €650k. Model A, which never saw Thomas during training, estimates €495k: the market value is 31% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €992k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 45
- Minutes
- 3,014
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 36/45
- Min / app
- 67
- Cards
- 11Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Thomas…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €650k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
80% this player69% midfielder median70th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Oct 2011
- Peak
- €3M
- Jan 2018
- Model target
- €650k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 33
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €650k, PEC Zwolle. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-10-29 | €25k | Waikato FC |
| 2012-01-01 | €75k | Waikato FC |
| 2012-05-02 | €125k | Waikato FC |
| 2012-12-26 | €150k | Waikato FC |
| 2014-02-11 | €300k | PEC Zwolle |
| 2014-08-11 | €750k | PEC Zwolle |
| 2015-02-12 | €1.3M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2015-07-01 | €1.5M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2016-02-05 | €1.5M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2016-07-15 | €1.5M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2017-01-18 | €1.3M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2017-06-07 | €1.3M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2018-01-17 | €3M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2018-06-12 | €3M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2018-12-28 | €3M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2019-06-12 | €2.5M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2019-12-18 | €3M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.4M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2020-10-14 | €2.4M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2021-03-09 | €3M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2021-05-19 | €3M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2022-01-05 | €3M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2022-06-08 | €2.5M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2022-10-07 | €2M | Without Club |
| 2023-04-03 | €1.3M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2023-07-04 | €1.3M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2023-12-15 | €1M | PEC Zwolle |
| 2024-05-31 | €900k | PEC Zwolle |
| 2024-10-14 | €700k | PEC Zwolle |
| 2024-12-17 | €600k | PEC Zwolle |
| 2025-05-28 | €700k | PEC Zwolle |
| 2025-12-02 | €700k | PEC Zwolle |
| 2026-05-28 | €650k | PEC Zwolle |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.273
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Eredivisie425 players · median €1M
Valued above 32% of the 425 Eredivisie players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Thomas appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- Ould-ChikhRWFC Volendam · Eredivisie€650k
- MonteiroCMPEC Zwolle · Eredivisie€650k
- BehounekCBWillem II Tilburg · Eredivisie€650k
- KachatiCFNEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie€650k
- FalcãoDMSC Farense · midfielders€650k
- LevittCMHibernian FC · midfielders€650k
- SeveljDMDundee United FC · midfielders€650k
- NisbetDMRoda JC Kerkrade · midfielders€650k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).