FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Randy

Nteka

AMAngola · Rayo Vallecano

№ 560483Emerging €3.2M −1.15

Player dossierLaLiga

RandyNteka

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Rayo Vallecano
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Angola
Age
28
Height
189 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nteka at €1M. Model A, which never saw Nteka during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 68% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.15A €3.2M▼ −1.09B €3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
1,906
Goals
6
Assists
0
Started
25/44
Min / app
43
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nteka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €3.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Randy Nteka's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 34th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 67th92ndGoals8thAssists34thMinutes30thStarts14thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.28 this player0.08 midfielder median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2018
Peak
€4M
Dec 2021
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
3 club changes
Jun 2026€1MRayo VallecanoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Rayo Vallecano. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-03-03€50kCF Fuenlabrada
2018-06-30€100kCF Fuenlabrada
2019-02-19€200kCF Fuenlabrada
2019-06-29€300kCF Fuenlabrada
2019-12-20€700kCF Fuenlabrada
2020-02-11€2MCF Fuenlabrada
2020-04-08€1.6MCF Fuenlabrada
2020-10-08€1.6MCF Fuenlabrada
2021-01-08€1.3MCF Fuenlabrada
2021-06-24€1.3MCF Fuenlabrada
2021-10-13€2MRayo Vallecano
2021-12-30€4MRayo Vallecano
2022-06-03€4MRayo Vallecano
2022-11-07€2.5MRayo Vallecano
2023-03-23€2MElche CF
2023-06-13€1.8MElche CF
2023-12-22€1.8MRayo Vallecano
2024-03-21€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-12€1.2MRayo Vallecano
2026-06-05€1MRayo Vallecano

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.150

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nteka appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).