FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Facundo

Garcés

CBMalaysia · Deportivo Alavés

№ 533354Emerging €2.4M −0.88

Player dossierLaLiga

FacundoGarcés

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Deportivo Alavés
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Malaysia
Age
26
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
11 Feb 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Garcés at €1M. Model A, which never saw Garcés during training, estimates €2.4M: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €787k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.88A €2.4M▲ +0.24B €787k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
18
Minutes
1,350
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
14/18
Min / app
75
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Garcés…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €2.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Facundo Garcés's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 19th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists19thMinutes40thStarts39thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

78% this player83% defender median40th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2017
Peak
€4.5M
May 2022
Model target
€1M
Feb 2026
Valuations
16
2 club changes
Feb 2026€1MDeportivo AlavésValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Feb 2026: €1M, Deportivo Alavés. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-09€50kClub Atlético Colón II
2019-08-06€50kClub Atlético Colón II
2019-12-05€50kClub Atlético Colón II
2021-02-08€150kCA Colón
2021-06-11€3.5MCA Colón
2021-10-20€3.5MCA Colón
2022-02-08€4MCA Colón
2022-05-24€4.5MCA Colón
2022-10-26€4.5MCA Colón
2023-07-04€4.5MCA Colón
2023-12-19€3MCA Colón
2024-06-26€1.8MCA Colón
2024-11-29€1.2MCA Colón
2025-06-09€2MDeportivo Alavés
2025-10-02€1MDeportivo Alavés
2026-02-11€1MDeportivo Alavés

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.883

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Garcés appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).