FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kirian

Rodríguez

AMSpain · UD Las Palmas

№ 566574Emerging €2.2M −0.79

Player dossierLaLiga

KirianRodríguez

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
UD Las Palmas
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
30 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Rodríguez at €1M. Model A, which never saw Rodríguez during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €646k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.79A €2.2M▲ +0.44B €646k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
3,651
Goals
3
Assists
4
Started
41/43
Min / app
85
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rodríguez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Kirian Rodríguez's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 52nd, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 30th46thGoals52ndAssists68thMinutes93rdStarts9thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

95% this player69% midfielder median93rd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2018
Peak
€12M
Mar 2024
Model target
€1M
Dec 2025
Valuations
20
1 club change
Dec 2025€1MUD Las PalmasValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1M, UD Las Palmas. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-06-30€50kLas Palmas Atlético
2019-02-19€150kLas Palmas Atlético
2019-06-29€250kLas Palmas Atlético
2019-09-10€300kUD Las Palmas
2019-12-20€500kUD Las Palmas
2020-04-08€400kUD Las Palmas
2020-10-08€500kUD Las Palmas
2021-01-08€500kUD Las Palmas
2021-06-24€500kUD Las Palmas
2021-12-27€500kUD Las Palmas
2022-06-29€800kUD Las Palmas
2022-12-29€800kUD Las Palmas
2023-06-14€800kUD Las Palmas
2023-10-13€2.5MUD Las Palmas
2023-12-22€6MUD Las Palmas
2024-03-21€12MUD Las Palmas
2024-06-07€12MUD Las Palmas
2024-12-27€12MUD Las Palmas
2025-06-09€1MUD Las Palmas
2025-12-30€1MUD Las Palmas

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.794

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rodríguez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).