FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Emilio

Kehrer

RMGermany · Willem II Tilburg

№ 527279Emerging €396k +0.01

Player dossierEredivisie

EmilioKehrer

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
Willem II Tilburg
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Germany
Age
23
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Kehrer at €400k. Model A, which never saw Kehrer during training, estimates €396k: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €756k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.01A €396k▼ −0.64B €756k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
1,171
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
11/25
Min / app
47
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kehrer…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €396k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Emilio Kehrer's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 47th, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 20th, European club minutes 30th47thGoals89thAssists17thMinutes15thStarts20thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.09 midfielder median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2021
Peak
€500k
Dec 2024
Model target
€400k
Dec 2025
Valuations
11
3 club changes
Dec 2025€400kWillem II TilburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €400k, Willem II Tilburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-02-15€100kSC Freiburg II
2021-06-30€300kSC Freiburg II
2021-12-30€400kSC Freiburg II
2022-06-01€450kSC Freiburg II
2022-11-04€400kCercle Brugge
2023-06-09€325kCercle Brugge
2023-12-28€300kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2024-06-20€400kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2024-12-17€500kWillem II Tilburg
2025-05-28€500kWillem II Tilburg
2025-12-16€400kWillem II Tilburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.009

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 18% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kehrer appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).