FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Hannes Van Der

Bruggen

DMBelgium · Cercle Brugge

№ 110822Emerging €611k −0.42

Player dossierPro League

Hannes Van DerBruggen

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Cercle Brugge
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
33
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bruggen at €400k. Model A, which never saw Bruggen during training, estimates €611k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €968k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.42A €611k▼ −0.88B €968k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
4,806
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
59/63
Min / app
76
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bruggen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €611k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Hannes Van Der Bruggen's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 23rd, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 92nd, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 65th21stGoals23rdAssists84thMinutes92ndStarts82ndRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

94% this player69% midfielder median92nd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2010
Peak
€2.5M
Jun 2015
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
3 club changes
Jun 2026€400kCercle BruggeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Cercle Brugge. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-12-28€50kKAA Gent U19
2011-08-12€150kKAA Gent
2012-01-05€600kKAA Gent
2012-06-17€1MKAA Gent
2013-01-09€1.5MKAA Gent
2013-06-25€2MKAA Gent
2014-02-10€2.2MKAA Gent
2014-06-28€2.2MKAA Gent
2015-01-07€2MKAA Gent
2015-06-24€2.5MKAA Gent
2016-02-07€2MKAA Gent
2016-07-15€1.2MKAA Gent
2017-01-21€1.2MKV Kortrijk
2017-06-06€1.2MKV Kortrijk
2017-10-20€1.5MKV Kortrijk
2018-01-09€1.5MKV Kortrijk
2018-06-03€1.5MKV Kortrijk
2018-12-27€1.4MKV Kortrijk
2019-06-10€1.5MKV Kortrijk
2019-12-13€1.5MKV Kortrijk
2020-04-08€1.2MKV Kortrijk
2020-10-16€1.2MKV Kortrijk
2021-06-07€1MCercle Brugge
2021-10-06€750kCercle Brugge
2022-01-06€750kCercle Brugge
2022-04-12€750kCercle Brugge
2022-11-04€650kCercle Brugge
2023-06-09€550kCercle Brugge
2023-12-19€750kCercle Brugge
2024-06-04€750kCercle Brugge
2024-12-11€650kCercle Brugge
2025-06-12€600kCercle Brugge
2025-12-10€500kCercle Brugge
2026-06-04€400kCercle Brugge

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.424

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 6% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bruggen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).