FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Morten

Frendrup

DMDenmark · Genoa CFC

№ 503871Elite €14.2M +0.05

Player dossierSerie A

MortenFrendrup

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Genoa CFC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Denmark
Age
25
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Frendrup at €15M. Model A, which never saw Frendrup during training, estimates €14.2M: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.05A €14.2M▲ 0.00B €15M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
6,603
Goals
4
Assists
0
Started
75/76
Min / app
87
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Frendrup…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €14.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Morten Frendrup's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 36th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 98th, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 30th36thGoals8thAssists97thMinutes98thStarts96thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

99% this player69% midfielder median98th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2018
Peak
€20M
Oct 2024
Model target
€15M
May 2026
Valuations
19
1 club change
May 2026€15MGenoa CFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €15M, Genoa CFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€100kBröndby IF
2019-06-08€200kBröndby IF
2019-12-22€1.5MBröndby IF
2020-04-08€1.3MBröndby IF
2020-07-31€2MBröndby IF
2020-12-23€2.5MBröndby IF
2021-06-04€3.5MBröndby IF
2021-12-28€3.5MBröndby IF
2022-06-07€3.7MGenoa CFC
2022-12-22€3.7MGenoa CFC
2023-06-12€4.2MGenoa CFC
2023-10-11€6MGenoa CFC
2023-12-20€10MGenoa CFC
2024-06-05€15MGenoa CFC
2024-10-18€20MGenoa CFC
2024-12-18€20MGenoa CFC
2025-06-17€20MGenoa CFC
2025-12-23€18MGenoa CFC
2026-05-29€15MGenoa CFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.052

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 75% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Frendrup appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).