FairValue

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Portrait of João Palhinha

João

Palhinha

DMPortugal · Tottenham Hotspur

№ 257455Elite €6.4M +0.85

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JoãoPalhinha

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Tottenham Hotspur
League
Premier League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
30
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Palhinha at €15M. Model A, which never saw Palhinha during training, estimates €6.4M: the market value is 135% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.85A €6.4M▲ +0.53B €8.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
70
Minutes
3,903
Goals
7
Assists
3
Started
40/70
Min / app
56
Cards
14Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Palhinha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €6.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

João Palhinha's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 38th, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 80th75thGoals38thAssists72ndMinutes31stStarts91stRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,962 this player1,541 midfielder median91st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jul 2015
Peak
€60M
Dec 2023
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
7 club changes
Jun 2026€15MTottenham HotspurValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Tottenham Hotspur. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€75kSporting CP B
2016-02-24€500kMoreirense FC
2016-07-29€1.3MSporting CP
2017-02-22€2MSporting CP
2017-06-26€2MSporting CP
2018-02-07€2MSporting CP
2018-06-13€1.5MSporting CP
2019-01-11€1.5MSC Braga
2019-06-07€2.5MSC Braga
2019-12-30€6MSC Braga
2020-04-08€4.8MSC Braga
2020-08-17€9MSporting CP
2020-10-22€12MSporting CP
2021-01-28€14MSporting CP
2021-03-23€15MSporting CP
2021-06-01€18MSporting CP
2021-07-15€21MSporting CP
2021-12-27€26MSporting CP
2022-05-31€25MSporting CP
2022-11-03€28MFulham FC
2023-03-16€35MFulham FC
2023-06-20€40MFulham FC
2023-10-09€55MFulham FC
2023-12-19€60MFulham FC
2024-03-14€55MFulham FC
2024-05-27€55MFulham FC
2024-10-09€50MBayern Munich
2024-12-20€40MBayern Munich
2025-06-05€30MBayern Munich
2025-12-09€25MTottenham Hotspur
2026-03-09€18MTottenham Hotspur
2026-06-03€15MTottenham Hotspur

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.853

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 43% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Palhinha appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).