FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Lucien

Agoumé

DMFrance · Sevilla FC

№ 569384Elite €13.1M +0.14

Player dossierLaLiga

LucienAgoumé

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Sevilla FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Agoumé at €15M. Model A, which never saw Agoumé during training, estimates €13.1M: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €13.1M▲ +0.24B €11.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
73
Minutes
5,096
Goals
2
Assists
7
Started
58/73
Min / app
70
Cards
16Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Agoumé…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €13.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Lucien Agoumé's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 26th, Assists per 90 62nd, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 30th26thGoals62ndAssists87thMinutes69thStarts87thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,805 this player1,541 midfielder median87th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€3.5M
Jun 2019
Peak
€15M
Jun 2026
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
6 club changes
Jun 2026€15MSevilla FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Sevilla FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-03€3.5MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2019-12-12€3.5MInter Milan
2020-04-08€3.2MInter Milan
2020-08-25€3.5MInter Milan
2020-12-29€3.5MSpezia Calcio
2021-06-03€5MSpezia Calcio
2021-12-16€6MStade Brestois 29
2022-05-30€7MStade Brestois 29
2022-11-02€7MESTAC Troyes
2023-06-27€7MESTAC Troyes
2023-12-20€6MInter Milan
2024-06-07€6MSevilla FC
2024-12-27€7MSevilla FC
2025-06-09€8MSevilla FC
2025-12-12€12MSevilla FC
2026-06-05€15MSevilla FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.138

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 80% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Agoumé appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).