Ersin
Destanoğlu
GKTürkiye · Besiktas JK
Player dossierSüper Lig
ErsinDestanoğlu
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Besiktas JK
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Türkiye
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 195 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Destanoğlu at €4M. Model A, which never saw Destanoğlu during training, estimates €6M: the market value is 34% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.51. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 32
- Minutes
- 2,880
- Started
- 32/32
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Destanoğlu…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
13% this player0% goalkeeper median77th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Sept 2017
- Peak
- €10M
- Mar 2022
- Model target
- €4M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 28
- 1 club change
May 2026: €4M, Besiktas JK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-09-08 | €50k | Besiktas JK U21 |
| 2018-07-04 | €50k | Besiktas JK |
| 2019-01-04 | €50k | Besiktas JK |
| 2019-06-04 | €50k | Besiktas JK |
| 2020-01-03 | €50k | Besiktas JK |
| 2020-08-04 | €600k | Besiktas JK |
| 2020-10-12 | €1M | Besiktas JK |
| 2020-12-23 | €1.3M | Besiktas JK |
| 2021-03-16 | €3M | Besiktas JK |
| 2021-05-21 | €5.5M | Besiktas JK |
| 2021-10-12 | €8.5M | Besiktas JK |
| 2022-01-04 | €9M | Besiktas JK |
| 2022-03-31 | €10M | Besiktas JK |
| 2022-06-01 | €10M | Besiktas JK |
| 2022-10-27 | €9M | Besiktas JK |
| 2023-03-14 | €6.5M | Besiktas JK |
| 2023-06-08 | €5M | Besiktas JK |
| 2023-09-27 | €3.5M | Besiktas JK |
| 2023-12-21 | €3M | Besiktas JK |
| 2024-03-15 | €2.5M | Besiktas JK |
| 2024-05-31 | €2M | Besiktas JK |
| 2024-10-04 | €2M | Besiktas JK |
| 2024-12-23 | €2M | Besiktas JK |
| 2025-03-20 | €2M | Besiktas JK |
| 2025-06-18 | €1.8M | Besiktas JK |
| 2025-12-17 | €2.2M | Besiktas JK |
| 2026-03-05 | €2.5M | Besiktas JK |
| 2026-05-21 | €4M | Besiktas JK |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.410
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 77% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 75% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Destanoğlu appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- IcardiCFGalatasaray · Süper Lig€4M
- KantéDMFenerbahce · Süper Lig€4M
- ChalovCFKayserispor · Süper Lig€4M
- ÜnderRWBesiktas JK · Süper Lig€4M
- NeuerGKBayern Munich · goalkeepers€4M
- OrtegaGKNottingham Forest · goalkeepers€4M
- AreolaGKWest Ham United · goalkeepers€4M
- ZettererGKEintracht Frankfurt · goalkeepers€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).