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Portrait of Alphonse Areola

Alphonse

Areola

GKFrance · West Ham United

№ 120629Established €1.7M +0.87

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AlphonseAreola

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
West Ham United
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
33
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Areola at €4M. Model A, which never saw Areola during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 138% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €416k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.87A €1.7M▲ +2.26B €416k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
4,509
Started
49/50
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Areola…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Alphonse Areola's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 32nd72ndMinutes19thStarts63rdRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,509 this player2,790 goalkeeper median72nd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jul 2010
Peak
€17.5M
Mar 2019
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
43
8 club changes
Jun 2026€4MWest Ham UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, West Ham United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-07-03€250kParis Saint-Germain U19
2011-05-24€250kParis Saint-Germain U19
2011-08-12€600kParis Saint-Germain
2011-12-24€650kParis Saint-Germain
2012-05-23€700kParis Saint-Germain
2013-01-07€700kParis Saint-Germain
2013-05-30€600kParis Saint-Germain
2013-09-13€1MRC Lens
2014-01-13€1.5MRC Lens
2014-08-01€2MSC Bastia
2015-01-14€3MSC Bastia
2015-06-06€4MSC Bastia
2015-07-01€4MVillarreal CF
2015-11-22€6MVillarreal CF
2016-02-22€7.5MVillarreal CF
2016-07-13€8MParis Saint-Germain
2016-11-01€10MParis Saint-Germain
2017-01-16€10MParis Saint-Germain
2017-06-01€10MParis Saint-Germain
2018-01-24€15MParis Saint-Germain
2018-06-04€15MParis Saint-Germain
2018-12-17€15MParis Saint-Germain
2019-03-07€17.5MParis Saint-Germain
2019-06-03€17.5MParis Saint-Germain
2019-12-20€16MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€13MReal Madrid
2020-10-13€13MFulham FC
2021-03-18€15MFulham FC
2021-06-08€17MFulham FC
2021-10-05€14MWest Ham United
2021-12-23€12MWest Ham United
2022-03-29€9MWest Ham United
2022-06-15€8MWest Ham United
2022-11-03€8MWest Ham United
2023-06-20€8MWest Ham United
2023-10-09€10MWest Ham United
2023-12-19€10MWest Ham United
2024-05-27€10MWest Ham United
2024-12-16€10MWest Ham United
2025-05-30€9MWest Ham United
2025-12-09€7MWest Ham United
2026-03-09€5MWest Ham United
2026-06-03€4MWest Ham United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.865

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 75% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Areola appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).