Manuel
Neuer
GKGermany · Bayern Munich
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
ManuelNeuer
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Bayern Munich
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 40
- Height
- 193 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Neuer at €4M. Model A, which never saw Neuer during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 74% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.74. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 77
- Minutes
- 6,660
- Started
- 77/77
- Min / app
- 86
- Cards
- 3Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Neuer…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
34% this player0% goalkeeper median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €75k
- Mar 2005
- Peak
- €45M
- Feb 2015
- Model target
- €4M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 48
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €4M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2005-03-17 | €75k | FC Schalke 04 U19 |
| 2005-09-16 | €150k | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2006-08-21 | €350k | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2007-01-15 | €1.5M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2007-06-21 | €3M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2008-01-01 | €4.5M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2008-06-04 | €7M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2009-01-21 | €9M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2009-06-10 | €11M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2010-01-17 | €15M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2010-07-16 | €20M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2011-01-12 | €24M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2011-06-29 | €28M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2012-01-23 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2012-06-29 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2013-01-13 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2013-06-30 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2014-02-12 | €35M | Bayern Munich |
| 2014-07-10 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2015-02-04 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2015-07-01 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2016-02-15 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2016-06-01 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2016-07-22 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2017-02-07 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2017-06-19 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2017-12-28 | €35M | Bayern Munich |
| 2018-06-05 | €35M | Bayern Munich |
| 2018-10-22 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2018-12-18 | €22M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-06-05 | €18M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-12-17 | €18M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-04-08 | €14.5M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-09-16 | €18M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-02-10 | €18M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-06-01 | €18M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-12-22 | €14M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-06-09 | €15M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-11-09 | €12M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-03-29 | €7M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-06-22 | €7M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-10-18 | €5M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-12-14 | €5M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-05-29 | €4M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-12-20 | €4M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-06-05 | €4M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-12-19 | €4M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-05-27 | €4M | Bayern Munich |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.553
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 39% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 75% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Neuer appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SüleCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€4M
- GrifoLWSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€4M
- ZettererGKEintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga€4M
- TorunarighaCBHamburger SV · Bundesliga€4M
- OrtegaGKNottingham Forest · goalkeepers€4M
- AreolaGKWest Ham United · goalkeepers€4M
- PeñaGKElche CF · goalkeepers€4M
- BenítezGKCrystal Palace · goalkeepers€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).