FairValue

Checking model

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Portrait of Hugo Vetlesen

Hugo

Vetlesen

CMNorway · Club Brugge KV

№ 499758Established €4.6M +0.09

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

HugoVetlesen

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Norway
Age
26
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vetlesen at €5M. Model A, which never saw Vetlesen during training, estimates €4.6M: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.09A €4.6M▼ −0.37B €7.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
66
Minutes
3,055
Goals
6
Assists
8
Started
35/66
Min / app
46
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vetlesen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €4.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Hugo Vetlesen's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 79th, Assists per 90 90th, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 25th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 78th79thGoals90thAssists58thMinutes25thStarts54thRecent78thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.24 this player0.09 midfielder median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Dec 2017
Peak
€7M
Jun 2023
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
2 club changes
Jun 2026€5MClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-12-23€300kStabæk Fotball
2018-09-10€500kStabæk Fotball
2018-12-30€400kStabæk Fotball
2019-12-29€500kStabæk Fotball
2020-04-08€450kStabæk Fotball
2020-07-25€500kStabæk Fotball
2020-12-31€700kFK Bodø/Glimt
2022-01-03€1.2MFK Bodø/Glimt
2022-12-09€4.5MFK Bodø/Glimt
2023-06-29€7MFK Bodø/Glimt
2023-12-19€6MClub Brugge KV
2024-06-04€7MClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€6MClub Brugge KV
2025-03-26€5MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€4MClub Brugge KV
2025-12-10€3MClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€5MClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.090

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 85% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vetlesen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).