FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Hans

Vanaken

AMBelgium · Club Brugge KV

№ 137576Established €4.2M +0.16

Player dossierPro League

HansVanaken

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
33
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vanaken at €5M. Model A, which never saw Vanaken during training, estimates €4.2M: the market value is 18% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €4.2M▼ −0.08B €5.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
96
Minutes
8,469
Goals
22
Assists
19
Started
95/96
Min / app
88
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vanaken…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €4.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Hans Vanaken's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 84th, Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 98th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 94th87thGoals84thAssists100thMinutes98thStarts100thRecent94thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,716 this player1,541 midfielder median100th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2010
Peak
€16M
Oct 2021
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
41
2 club changes
Jun 2026€5MClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-07-04€50kLommel United
2010-11-30€100kLommel United
2011-06-17€150kLommel United
2011-12-02€250kLommel United
2012-02-05€350kLommel United
2013-01-01€400kLommel United
2013-08-12€700kKSC Lokeren (-2020)
2013-10-08€1.2MKSC Lokeren (-2020)
2014-02-10€3MKSC Lokeren (-2020)
2014-06-28€5MKSC Lokeren (-2020)
2015-01-07€6MKSC Lokeren (-2020)
2015-10-22€5MClub Brugge KV
2016-02-07€5MClub Brugge KV
2016-07-15€5.5MClub Brugge KV
2017-01-21€5MClub Brugge KV
2017-06-06€5MClub Brugge KV
2018-01-09€6MClub Brugge KV
2018-03-30€7MClub Brugge KV
2018-06-03€7.5MClub Brugge KV
2018-09-11€8.5MClub Brugge KV
2018-12-27€10MClub Brugge KV
2019-06-10€11.5MClub Brugge KV
2019-09-13€14MClub Brugge KV
2019-12-13€15MClub Brugge KV
2020-04-08€12MClub Brugge KV
2020-10-16€15MClub Brugge KV
2021-05-26€13MClub Brugge KV
2021-10-06€16MClub Brugge KV
2022-01-06€16MClub Brugge KV
2022-04-12€16MClub Brugge KV
2022-11-04€15MClub Brugge KV
2023-03-22€12MClub Brugge KV
2023-06-09€10MClub Brugge KV
2023-12-19€8.5MClub Brugge KV
2024-03-22€7.5MClub Brugge KV
2024-06-04€7MClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€6MClub Brugge KV
2025-03-26€7MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€7MClub Brugge KV
2025-12-10€6MClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€5MClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.163

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 85% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vanaken appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).