FairValue

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Portrait of James Ward-Prowse

James

Ward-Prowse

CMEngland · Burnley FC

№ 181579Established €2.7M +0.61

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JamesWard-Prowse

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
31
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ward-Prowse at €5M. Model A, which never saw Ward-Prowse during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 85% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.85. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €900k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.61A €2.7M▲ +1.72B €900k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
2,862
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
33/46
Min / app
62
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ward-Prowse…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

James Ward-Prowse's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 25th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 55th, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 30th25thGoals50thAssists55thMinutes55thStarts41stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

72% this player69% midfielder median55th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2011
Peak
€38M
Mar 2023
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
5 club changes
Jun 2026€5MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-08-15€50kSouthampton FC U18
2012-09-28€500kSouthampton FC
2013-01-28€1MSouthampton FC
2013-07-02€2MSouthampton FC
2014-01-15€3.5MSouthampton FC
2014-08-12€5MSouthampton FC
2015-02-12€8MSouthampton FC
2015-07-01€9MSouthampton FC
2016-02-09€11MSouthampton FC
2016-08-01€11MSouthampton FC
2017-02-20€13MSouthampton FC
2017-06-28€15MSouthampton FC
2018-01-02€15MSouthampton FC
2018-05-28€18MSouthampton FC
2018-12-19€15MSouthampton FC
2019-06-13€18MSouthampton FC
2019-12-10€18MSouthampton FC
2020-04-08€14.5MSouthampton FC
2020-07-30€18MSouthampton FC
2020-10-13€20MSouthampton FC
2020-12-17€25MSouthampton FC
2021-03-18€28MSouthampton FC
2021-05-28€30MSouthampton FC
2021-10-05€32MSouthampton FC
2021-12-23€32MSouthampton FC
2022-06-15€32MSouthampton FC
2022-11-03€35MSouthampton FC
2023-03-16€38MSouthampton FC
2023-06-20€38MSouthampton FC
2023-12-19€38MWest Ham United
2024-03-14€35MWest Ham United
2024-05-27€30MWest Ham United
2024-10-01€22MNottingham Forest
2024-12-16€16MNottingham Forest
2025-03-18€10MWest Ham United
2025-05-30€8MWest Ham United
2025-12-09€6MWest Ham United
2026-06-03€5MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.612

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ward-Prowse appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).