FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Koke

Koke

CMSpain · Atlético de Madrid

№ 74229Established €3M +0.51

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

Koke

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Atlético de Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Koke at €5M. Model A, which never saw Koke during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 67% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.67. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.51A €3M▲ +0.47B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
103
Minutes
6,408
Goals
3
Assists
5
Started
68/103
Min / app
62
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koke…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Koke's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 30th, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 89th30thGoals39thAssists96thMinutes44thStarts98thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,750 this player1,541 midfielder median98th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Feb 2011
Peak
€70M
Jan 2018
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
43
0 club changes
Jun 2026€5MAtlético de MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Atlético de Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-02-11€600kAtlético de Madrid
2011-02-28€1MAtlético de Madrid
2011-07-29€3MAtlético de Madrid
2012-02-03€3MAtlético de Madrid
2012-04-14€3.5MAtlético de Madrid
2012-08-01€5MAtlético de Madrid
2013-01-10€8MAtlético de Madrid
2013-06-12€14MAtlético de Madrid
2013-10-21€20MAtlético de Madrid
2014-01-23€25MAtlético de Madrid
2014-03-31€30MAtlético de Madrid
2014-07-20€40MAtlético de Madrid
2015-01-23€50MAtlético de Madrid
2015-07-01€50MAtlético de Madrid
2016-02-22€50MAtlético de Madrid
2016-06-01€60MAtlético de Madrid
2016-07-15€60MAtlético de Madrid
2017-01-24€55MAtlético de Madrid
2017-06-05€60MAtlético de Madrid
2018-01-01€70MAtlético de Madrid
2018-05-30€70MAtlético de Madrid
2018-12-21€70MAtlético de Madrid
2019-06-11€70MAtlético de Madrid
2019-12-20€60MAtlético de Madrid
2020-04-08€48MAtlético de Madrid
2020-10-08€60MAtlético de Madrid
2021-01-05€60MAtlético de Madrid
2021-05-31€60MAtlético de Madrid
2021-12-30€40MAtlético de Madrid
2022-03-21€35MAtlético de Madrid
2022-06-03€25MAtlético de Madrid
2022-09-23€20MAtlético de Madrid
2022-11-07€18MAtlético de Madrid
2023-03-23€16MAtlético de Madrid
2023-06-13€16MAtlético de Madrid
2023-12-22€14MAtlético de Madrid
2024-03-21€12MAtlético de Madrid
2024-06-07€12MAtlético de Madrid
2024-12-27€10MAtlético de Madrid
2025-06-09€8MAtlético de Madrid
2025-12-12€7MAtlético de Madrid
2026-03-16€6MAtlético de Madrid
2026-06-05€5MAtlético de Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.514

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 57% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Koke appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).